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Prime Minister Tony Abbott (15%) trails far behind former Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull (44%) as preferred Liberal Leader while Shorten (22%) narrowly favoured ALP Leader over Tanya Plibersek (16%) & Anthony Albanese (15%)

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week of June 3-5, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 560 electors.

A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last three nights this week (June 3-5, 2014) finds:

  • Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull (44%, down 7% since July 16-17, 2013) is still clearly the preferred L-NP Leader over Prime Minister Tony Abbott (15%, down 1%). Treasurer Joe Hockey is next with 11% (down 3%) ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop at 7% (unchanged).

  • However, L-NP voters clearly prefer Prime Minister Tony Abbott (35%, up 5%) as Liberal Party Leader ahead of Malcolm Turnbull (29%, down 10%) with both clearly preferred to Treasurer Joe Hockey (16%, down 4%). All three are well ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (8%, up 3%).

  • Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (22%, up 13%) is clearly the preferred ALP Leader ahead of Deputy Leader of the Opposition Tanya Plibersek (16%) and Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese (15%) and former Treasurer Wayne Swan (9%, up 4%).

  • Amongst ALP supporters Shorten (32%, up 28% since July 16-17, 2013 prior to the last Federal Election) is more clearly favoured over Tanya Plibersek (16%), Anthony Albanese (13%) and Wayne Swan (10%, up 6%). At the time this poll was last conducted (In July 2013) 78% of ALP supporters preferred then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (71%) or former Prime Minister Julia Gillard (7%).

  • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, Mr Turnbull (48%, down 9%) is clearly preferred to Joe Hockey (15%, down 4%) and current Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (9%, down 2%).

  • If Opposition Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Deputy Leader of the Opposition Tania Plibersek (21%) is only slightly preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Anthony Albanese (19%), followed by former Treasurer Wayne Swan (13%, down 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (44%, down 7% since July 2013) is clearly the preferred Coalition Leader ahead of sitting Prime Minister Tony Abbott (15%, down 1%) - even though Turnbull has strenuously denied this week he wants the job in the wake of media speculation led by News Corp journalist Andrew Bolt.

“However, L-NP supporters still clearly favour Abbott (35%) over Turnbull (29%) while support for Turnbull comes largely from supporters of other parties. ALP supporters massively favour Turnbull (56%) cf. Abbott (1%), and the same is true for Greens supporters: Turnbull (61%) cf. Abbott (0%) and supporters of the Palmer United Party: Turnbull (51%) cf. Abbott (0%).

“Electors are more confused about who they want leading the ALP with no candidate attracting more than a quarter of the electorate’s support. Current Labor Leader Bill Shorten (22%) leads Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek (16%) and Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (15%), but 47% of electors either support someone else or can’t say who they support.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week of June 3-5, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 560 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?” 

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Abbott
as PM

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

42

50

47

51

44

29

56

61

51

36

Abbott

19

15

18

16

15

35

1

-

-

15

Hockey

18

18

19

14

11

16

7

8

13

7

J. Bishop

7

5

6

7

7

8

5

6

7

12

Joyce

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

5

6

3

3

-

12

Robb

1

1

1

1

2

*

3

1

-

4

Morrison

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

1

2

-

-

-

Pyne

2

2

1

1

1

1

*

1

5

-

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

-

1

-

5

2

Can’t say

10

8

7

9

12

4

22

20

19

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.

 

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce & Scott Morrison?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Abbott
as PM

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

48

56

51

57

48

40

56

61

51

38

Hockey

24

22

26

19

15

26

7

8

13

16

J. Bishop

10

8

9

11

9

13

5

6

7

14

Joyce

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

6

8

3

3

-

12

Morrison

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

4

2

-

-

6

Robb

2

1

1

2

2

1

2

1

-

-

Pyne

3

3

2

2

1

2

1

1

5

-

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

-

1

-

5

2

Can’t say

12

9

10

8

15

6

23

20

19

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?” 

 

Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

PM Rudd

PM Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

4

6

11

9

22

18

32

15

-

17

Plibersek

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

16

9

16

40

11

13

Albanese

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

15

17

13

16

15

12

Swan

7

6

6

5

9

10

10

1

14

15

Bowen

2

2

3

4

5

8

4

2

5

2

Macklin

2

2

4

3

5

7

2

8

5

7

Burke

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

5

1

-

12

8

Rudd

34

34

33

42

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gillard

22

22

14

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Smith

9

10

10

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Combet

4

4

5

4

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

2

1

2

2

2

1

3

5

1

Can’t say

15

12

13

13

23

24

21

15

33

25

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

 

Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

PM Rudd

PM Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Sep 17-20,
2012

Nov 27-29,
2012

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

L-NP

ALP

The
Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

8

8

14

15

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Plibersek

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

21

12

23

44

11

21

Albanese

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

19

21

21

18

15

12

Swan

12

11

7

14

13

12

16

3

14

15

Bowen

2

3

4

6

7

9

8

3

5

4

Macklin

4

3

4

4

7

8

4

11

5

7

Burke

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

5

8

2

2

12

9

Rudd

38

40

36

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gillard

n/a

n/a

n/a

16

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Smith

12

12

11

13

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Combet

7

7

6

7

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

3

1

3

2

2

1

3

5

-

Can’t say

16

13

17

22

26

28

25

16

33

32

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:   Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093