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Prime Minister Tony Abbott (38%) trails Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%) as ‘Better PM’ for the first time. But neither Leader has positive job approval

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week June 3-5, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 560 electors.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott (38%, down 2% since October 18-20, 2013) trails Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 7%) as the ‘Better PM’ for the first time according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights (June 3-5, 2014).

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Australian electors clearly disapprove of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of his job as Prime Minister with a massive 59% disapproving compared to only 34% that approve and 7% can’t say.

Australian electors have a similar view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader; 45% disapprove, 35% approve and 20% can’t say.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows women clearly support Shorten (46%) cf. Abbott (37%) while support from men support Abbott (40%) and Shorten (40%) equally for Better Prime Minister.

Majorities of both women (62%) and men (57%) disapprove of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only 33% of women and 36% of men that approve. The figures are similar for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with more women (43%) and men (47%) disapproving of Shorten’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader and only 36% of women and 34% of men approving.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 7% since October 2013) is now regarded as the ‘Better PM’ for the first time ahead of current Prime Minister Tony Abbott (38%, down 2%).

“However, despite Shorten leading Abbott on this measure, electors clearly disapprove of the way both leaders are handling their current jobs – 59% disapprove of Abbott’s performance as Prime Minister compared to only 34% that approve while 45% disapprove of Shorten’s performance as Opposition Leader compared to only 35% that approve.”

For the Poll ‘nerds’

The telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%. The last multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends of May 24/25 & 31/ June 1 shows the ALP (56.5%) with a clear lead over the L-NP (43.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. This week’s telephone Morgan Poll shows the primary vote is L-NP 38.5%, ALP 36%, Greens 12.5%, Palmer United Party 3.5% and Independent/Others 9.5%. Of those surveyed 2% did not name a party. This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week June 3-5, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 560 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Better Prime Minister: Abbott v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Tony Abbott and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Abbott or Mr. Shorten?” 

 

Rudd/ Gillard v Abbott

Abbott v Shorten

 

PM Kevin
Rudd

Prime Minister
Julia Gillard

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister
Tony Abbott

 

 

May 12/13,

2010

Mar 16/17,

2011

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

Oct 18-20,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

 

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Rudd/ PM Abbott

49

59

50

52

46

43

40

38

 

Abbott/ Shorten

37

32

43

36

43

44

36

43

 

Rudd/ Abbott lead

12

27

7

16

3

(1)

4

(5)

 

Other / Can’t say

14

9

7

12

11

13

24

19

 

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

June 4-6,
2014

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

38

40

37

17

27

35

48

50

Shorten

43

40

46

60

51

46

32

38

Abbott lead

(5)

-

(9)

(43)

(24)

(11)

16

12

Neither/ Can’t say

19

20

17

23

22

19

20

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 4-6,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Abbott

38

82

7

15

6

31

-

Shorten

43

7

73

66

28

46

46

Abbott lead

(5)

75

(66)

(51)

(22)

(15)

(46)

Neither/ Can’t say

19

11

20

19

66

23

54

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Tony Abbott v Bill Shorten

Prime Minister: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

 

Prime Minister Julia Gillard

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

PM Abbott

 

 

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

40

42

27

45

40

36

34

Disapprove

54

51

48

65

40

49

53

59

Approve - Disapprove

(20)

(11)

(6)

(38)

5

(9)

(17)

(25)

Can’t say

12

9

10

8

15

11

11

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

June 4-6,
2014

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

36

33

16

27

32

42

43

Disapprove

59

57

62

81

66

62

51

52

Approve - Disapprove

(25)

(21)

(29)

(65)

(39)

(30)

(9)

(9)

Can’t say

7

7

5

3

7

6

7

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 4-6,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

76

6

7

5

24

5

Disapprove

59

15

89

90

95

66

95

Approve - Disapprove

(25)

61

(83)

(83)

(90

(42)

(90)

Can’t say

7

9

5

3

-

10

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Shorten as
Oppn. Ldr.

 

 

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,

2013

July 16/17,
2013

Aug 12/13,
2013

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

36

32

28

41

38

42

41

35

Disapprove

56

60

63

51

54

48

51

45

Approve - Disapprove

(20)

(28)

(35)

(10)

(16)

(6)

(10)

(10)

Can’t say

8

8

9

8

8

10

8

20

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

June 4-6,
2014

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

35

34

36

34

39

34

36

31

Disapprove

45

47

43

23

32

43

53

56

Approve - Disapprove

(10)

(13)

(7)

11

7

(9)

(17)

(25)

Can’t say

20

19

21

43

29

23

11

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 4-6,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

35

25

51

30

5

35

18

Disapprove

45

63

22

52

87

35

21

Approve - Disapprove

(10)

(38)

29

(22)

(82)

-

(3)

Can’t say

20

12

27

18

8

30

61

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9


For further information:

Gary Morgan:  Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093


The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.