This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.
A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013*) say the Roy Morgan May unemployment estimate (9.7%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the far lower official ABS May unemployment number (5.8%); 32% (up 11%) believe the ABS number while a further 13% (down 8%) can’t say.
Analysis by Gender & Age
Analysis by gender shows women (62%, up 1%) are more likely than men (48%, down 7%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. More men (40%, up 14%) than women (25%, up 9%) say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’.
Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 53% of 18-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, 50% of 25-34yr olds, 60% of 35-49yr olds, 58% of 50-64yr olds and 51% of 65+yr olds.
Analysis by Voting Intention – shows change of Government changes perceptions
Analysis by voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties and also huge changes from a year ago when there was an ALP Government.
The improvement in belief in the ABS unemployment estimate has been entirely driven by L-NP supporters. Now 46% (up 31% from a year ago during the Rudd Government) of L-NP supporters say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 39% (down 29%) that say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. This is a huge shift in only a year and underlines how supporters can comprehensively favour their own side of politics.
ALP supporters have also changed their views – although not to the same extent. Now 62% (up 17%) of ALP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 28% (down 4%) that believe the ABS unemployment estimate. Greens supporters have seen a similar change with 71% (up 27%) saying the Roy Morgan unemployment figures are ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 20% (down 3%) that say the ABS figures are. A clear majority of Palmer United Party supporters (70%) agree with the Roy Morgan employment estimate.
Gary Morgan says:
“A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (9.7% in May) is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 32% (up 11%) that say the official ABS unemployment estimate (5.8% in May) is ‘closer to reality’.
“Analysis of this research conducted under an ALP Government and an L-NP Government shows clearly that supporters of the party in Government are more likely to believe official Government statistics such as the ABS unemployment figure.
“The Coalition Government has missed a unique opportunity to use the real unemployment figures to drive the changes needed to reduce unemployment and under-employment by changing work practices – and it’s impossible for the Abbott Government to successfully argue major Government Budget changes relating to taxes and expenditure are needed when the ABS says unemployment is under 6%!”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.
Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in April/May was 5.8%. The Roy Morgan estimate for May was 9.7%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”
|
Telephone Morgan Poll
|
|
Interviewing Dates Electors
|
Voting Intention
|
|
June
2013
|
June 10-12,
2014
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Palmer
|
Ind./Other
|
Can't say#
|
Roy Morgan
|
58
|
55
|
39
|
62
|
71
|
70
|
65
|
71
|
ABS
|
21
|
33
|
46
|
28
|
20
|
20
|
23
|
8
|
Can’t say
|
21
|
12
|
15
|
10
|
9
|
10
|
12
|
21
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.
|
Telephone Morgan Poll
|
|
Australians 14+
|
Gender
|
Age
|
|
June
2013
|
June 10-12,
2014
|
Men
|
Women
|
18-24
|
25-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
Roy Morgan
|
58
|
55
|
48
|
62
|
53
|
50
|
60
|
58
|
51
|
ABS
|
21
|
32
|
40
|
25
|
35
|
38
|
29
|
28
|
38
|
Can’t say
|
21
|
13
|
12
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
11
|
14
|
11
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Telephone Morgan Poll
|
|
Australians 14+
|
State
|
|
June
2013
|
June 10-12,
2014
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS
|
Roy Morgan
|
58
|
55
|
53
|
63
|
51
|
50
|
49
|
77
|
ABS
|
21
|
32
|
37
|
26
|
35
|
36
|
27
|
17
|
Can’t say
|
21
|
13
|
10
|
11
|
14
|
14
|
24
|
6
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
*In June 2013 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.7% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7% - i.e. about the same as now.
For further information:
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|