This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.
A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013*) say the Roy Morgan May unemployment estimate (9.7%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the far lower official ABS May unemployment number (5.8%); 32% (up 11%) believe the ABS number while a further 13% (down 8%) can’t say.
Analysis by Gender & Age
Analysis by gender shows women (62%, up 1%) are more likely than men (48%, down 7%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. More men (40%, up 14%) than women (25%, up 9%) say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’.
Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 53% of 18-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, 50% of 25-34yr olds, 60% of 35-49yr olds, 58% of 50-64yr olds and 51% of 65+yr olds.
Analysis by Voting Intention – shows change of Government changes perceptions
Analysis by voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties and also huge changes from a year ago when there was an ALP Government.
The improvement in belief in the ABS unemployment estimate has been entirely driven by L-NP supporters. Now 46% (up 31% from a year ago during the Rudd Government) of L-NP supporters say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 39% (down 29%) that say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. This is a huge shift in only a year and underlines how supporters can comprehensively favour their own side of politics.
ALP supporters have also changed their views – although not to the same extent. Now 62% (up 17%) of ALP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 28% (down 4%) that believe the ABS unemployment estimate. Greens supporters have seen a similar change with 71% (up 27%) saying the Roy Morgan unemployment figures are ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 20% (down 3%) that say the ABS figures are. A clear majority of Palmer United Party supporters (70%) agree with the Roy Morgan employment estimate.
Gary Morgan says:
“A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (9.7% in May) is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 32% (up 11%) that say the official ABS unemployment estimate (5.8% in May) is ‘closer to reality’.
“Analysis of this research conducted under an ALP Government and an L-NP Government shows clearly that supporters of the party in Government are more likely to believe official Government statistics such as the ABS unemployment figure.
“The Coalition Government has missed a unique opportunity to use the real unemployment figures to drive the changes needed to reduce unemployment and under-employment by changing work practices – and it’s impossible for the Abbott Government to successfully argue major Government Budget changes relating to taxes and expenditure are needed when the ABS says unemployment is under 6%!”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.
Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in April/May was 5.8%. The Roy Morgan estimate for May was 9.7%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”
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Telephone Morgan Poll
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Interviewing Dates Electors
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Voting Intention
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June
2013
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June 10-12,
2014
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L-NP
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ALP
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Greens
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Palmer
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Ind./Other
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Can't say#
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Roy Morgan
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58
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55
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39
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62
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71
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70
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65
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71
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ABS
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21
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33
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46
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28
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20
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20
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23
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8
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Can’t say
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21
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12
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15
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10
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9
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10
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12
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21
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TOTAL
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.
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Telephone Morgan Poll
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Australians 14+
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Gender
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Age
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June
2013
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June 10-12,
2014
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Men
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Women
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18-24
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25-34
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35-49
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50-64
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65+
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Roy Morgan
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58
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55
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48
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62
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53
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50
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60
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58
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51
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ABS
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21
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32
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40
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25
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35
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38
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29
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28
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38
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Can’t say
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21
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13
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12
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13
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12
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12
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11
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14
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11
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TOTAL
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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Telephone Morgan Poll
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Australians 14+
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State
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June
2013
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June 10-12,
2014
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NSW
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VIC
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QLD
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WA
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SA
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TAS
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Roy Morgan
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58
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55
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53
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63
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51
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50
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49
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77
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ABS
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21
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32
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37
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26
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35
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36
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27
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17
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Can’t say
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21
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13
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10
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11
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14
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14
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24
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6
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TOTAL
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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100
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*In June 2013 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.7% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7% - i.e. about the same as now.
For further information:
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Contact
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Office
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Mobile
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Gary Morgan:
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+61 3 9224 5213
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+61 411 129 094
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Michele Levine:
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+61 3 9224 5215
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+61 411 129 093
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