Back To Listing

Roy Morgan Research ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS according to a majority of Australians

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.

A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013*) say the Roy Morgan May unemployment estimate (9.7%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the far lower official ABS May unemployment number (5.8%); 32% (up 11%) believe the ABS number while a further 13% (down 8%) can’t say.

Analysis by Gender & Age

Analysis by gender shows women (62%, up 1%) are more likely than men (48%, down 7%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. More men (40%, up 14%) than women (25%, up 9%) say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’.

Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 53% of 18-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, 50% of 25-34yr olds, 60% of 35-49yr olds, 58% of 50-64yr olds and 51% of 65+yr olds.

Analysis by Voting Intention – shows change of Government changes perceptions

Analysis by voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties and also huge changes from a year ago when there was an ALP Government.

The improvement in belief in the ABS unemployment estimate has been entirely driven by L-NP supporters. Now 46% (up 31% from a year ago during the Rudd Government) of L-NP supporters say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 39% (down 29%) that say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. This is a huge shift in only a year and underlines how supporters can comprehensively favour their own side of politics.

ALP supporters have also changed their views – although not to the same extent. Now 62% (up 17%) of ALP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 28% (down 4%) that believe the ABS unemployment estimate. Greens supporters have seen a similar change with 71% (up 27%) saying the Roy Morgan unemployment figures are ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 20% (down 3%) that say the ABS figures are. A clear majority of Palmer United Party supporters (70%) agree with the Roy Morgan employment estimate.

Gary Morgan says:

“A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (9.7% in May) is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 32% (up 11%) that say the official ABS unemployment estimate (5.8% in May) is ‘closer to reality’.

“Analysis of this research conducted under an ALP Government and an L-NP Government shows clearly that supporters of the party in Government are more likely to believe official Government statistics such as the ABS unemployment figure.

“The Coalition Government has missed a unique opportunity to use the real unemployment figures to drive the changes needed to reduce unemployment and under-employment by changing work practices – and it’s impossible for the Abbott Government to successfully argue major Government Budget changes relating to taxes and expenditure are needed when the ABS says unemployment is under 6%!”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.

Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in April/May was 5.8%. The Roy Morgan estimate for May was 9.7%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

Interviewing Dates Electors

Voting Intention

 

June
2013

June 10-12,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind./Other

Can't say#

Roy Morgan

58

55

39

62

71

70

65

71

ABS

21

33

46

28

20

20

23

8

Can’t say

21

12

15

10

9

10

12

21

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

Australians 14+

Gender

Age

 

June
2013

June 10-12,
2014

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Roy Morgan

58

55

48

62

53

50

60

58

51

ABS

21

32

40

25

35

38

29

28

38

Can’t say

21

13

12

13

12

12

11

14

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

Australians 14+

State

 

June
2013

June 10-12,
2014

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

Roy Morgan

58

55

53

63

51

50

49

77

ABS

21

32

37

26

35

36

27

17

Can’t say

21

13

10

11

14

14

24

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*In June 2013 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.7% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7% - i.e. about the same as now.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093