Roy Morgan Research ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS according to a majority of Australians

A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013*) say the Roy Morgan May unemployment estimate (9.7%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the far lower official ABS May unemployment number (5.8%); 32% (up 11%) believe the ABS number while a further 13% (down 8%) can’t say.

Analysis by Gender & Age

Analysis by gender shows women (62%, up 1%) are more likely than men (48%, down 7%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. More men (40%, up 14%) than women (25%, up 9%) say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’.

Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 53% of 18-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, 50% of 25-34yr olds, 60% of 35-49yr olds, 58% of 50-64yr olds and 51% of 65+yr olds.

Analysis by Voting Intention – shows change of Government changes perceptions

Analysis by voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties and also huge changes from a year ago when there was an ALP Government.

The improvement in belief in the ABS unemployment estimate has been entirely driven by L-NP supporters. Now 46% (up 31% from a year ago during the Rudd Government) of L-NP supporters say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 39% (down 29%) that say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. This is a huge shift in only a year and underlines how supporters can comprehensively favour their own side of politics.

ALP supporters have also changed their views – although not to the same extent. Now 62% (up 17%) of ALP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 28% (down 4%) that believe the ABS unemployment estimate. Greens supporters have seen a similar change with 71% (up 27%) saying the Roy Morgan unemployment figures are ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 20% (down 3%) that say the ABS figures are. A clear majority of Palmer United Party supporters (70%) agree with the Roy Morgan employment estimate.

Gary Morgan says:

“A clear majority of Australians (55%, down 3% since June 2013) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (9.7% in May) is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 32% (up 11%) that say the official ABS unemployment estimate (5.8% in May) is ‘closer to reality’.

“Analysis of this research conducted under an ALP Government and an L-NP Government shows clearly that supporters of the party in Government are more likely to believe official Government statistics such as the ABS unemployment figure.

“The Coalition Government has missed a unique opportunity to use the real unemployment figures to drive the changes needed to reduce unemployment and under-employment by changing work practices – and it’s impossible for the Abbott Government to successfully argue major Government Budget changes relating to taxes and expenditure are needed when the ABS says unemployment is under 6%!”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 18+.

Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in April/May was 5.8%. The Roy Morgan estimate for May was 9.7%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

*In June 2013 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.7% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7% - i.e. about the same as now.

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