Back To Listing

Of employed Australians 49% (equal highest since November 1992) think ‘finding a new job’ would be difficult while clear majority (61%) still think unemployment will rise in the next 12 months and only 18% think unemployment will fall

These findings come from a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, June 10-12, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 men and women aged 14 or over on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months.

Finding a new job

In Australia, 49% (unchanged since April and still the equal highest since November 1992 and Australia’s last recession) of employed Australians say it might take longer to find a new job if they were to become unemployed compared to 46% (up 2%) of workers that say if they became unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly while 2% (down 2%) wouldn’t look and 3% (unchanged) don’t know according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, June 10-12, 2014.

Unemployment to increase / decrease

Now 61% (unchanged since April 2014) of all Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months while only 18% (up 1%) say that unemployment will fall, 18% (unchanged) say unemployment will remain the same and 3% (down 1%) don’t know.

Job security

A majority of employed Australians (74% unchanged since April and still the equal lowest since 1999) say their present job is safe, while 22% (unchanged, the equal highest since 2001) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and only 4% (unchanged) don’t know.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows only 46% (up 2% since April 2014) of employed Australians think if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. In fact more employed Australians (49%, unchanged) say it may take longer to find a new job – the equal highest since November 1992 and Australia’s last recession.

“In addition a clear majority of Australians (61%, unchanged since April 2014) expect unemployment to increase over the next 12 months compared to 18% (up 1%) that expect unemployment to fall. The elevated level of this index isn’t surprising given the high number of prominent job losses announced early this year by many companies, and in recent days Australia Post has announced a further 900 managerial and support jobs will go in a major restructuring of its operations.

“When it comes to how secure employed Australians feel in their jobs, there is still a great majority who feel their present job is safe (74%, unchanged). Even so, this is the equal lowest majority for 15 years since November 1999. Now a high 22% (unchanged) feel there is a chance they may become unemployed – the equal highest figure since December 2001.

“Part of the dissatisfaction stems from a lack of belief in the official figures. A separate telephone Morgan Poll this week found a clear majority of Australians (55%) believe the Roy Morgan May unemployment figure of 9.7% is ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 32% of Australians who believe the official ABS May unemployment figure of 5.8% is a better reflection of reality.”

These findings come from a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, June 10-12, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 men and women aged 14 or over on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months.


Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

Well over half (61%, unchanged since April 2014) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months. In contrast only 18% (up 1%) expect unemployment to fall, while 18% (unchanged) believe there will be no change and 3% (down 1%) don’t know.

Expect Unemployment to

Increase

Fall

No change

Don’t know*

Year

%

%

%

%

1975

64

21

15

*

1976

60

19

21

*

1977

64

20

16

*

1978

73

10

17

*

1979

69

10

21

*

1980

67

11

22

*

Dec ‘82

88

5

7

*

Oct ‘83

54

23

23

*

Nov ‘84

44

30

26

*

Nov ‘85

49

27

24

*

Nov ‘86

63

13

24

*

Dec ‘87

59

16

25

*

Nov ‘88

48

22

30

*

Nov ‘89

50

18

32

*

Nov ‘90

81

10

9

*

Aug ‘91

65

17

18

*

Nov ‘91

62

22

16

*

Jul ‘92

54

24

22

*

Nov ‘92

55

22

23

*

Nov ‘93

44

27

29

*

Nov ‘94

32

42

26

*

Nov ‘95

49

23

28

*

Jul ‘97

47

25

28

*

Nov ‘97

45

26

29

*

Nov ‘98  

53

20

27

*

Nov ‘99

38

29

33

*

Dec ‘00

50

20

30

*

Dec ‘01

60

16

24

*

Dec ‘02

44

19

37

*

Dec ‘03

39

22

39

*

Dec ‘04

36

24

40

*

Nov ‘05

40

21

39

*

Nov ‘06

40

24

32

4

Oct ‘07

26

17

47

10

Nov ‘08

70

20

8

2

Jun ‘09

70

18

11

1

Nov ‘09

52

24

22

2

Feb ‘12

49

22

25

4

Apr ‘14

61

17

18

4

Jun ‘14

61

18

18

3

“Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005.

Job Security in Australia

Those respondents who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Nearly three quarters of Australians 74% (unchanged since April 2014) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 22% (unchanged) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 4% (unchanged) don’t know.

Job Security

Present job safe

Chance of unemployment

Don't know

Year

%

%

%

1975

76

21

3

1976

78

17

5

1977

82

15

3

1978

79

19

2

1979

77

20

3

1980

73

23

4

Dec ‘82

72

25

3

Oct ‘83

79

18

3

Nov ‘84

82

17

1

Nov ‘85

79

18

3

Nov ‘86

80

17

3

Dec ‘87

80

18

2

Nov ‘88

81

18

1

Nov ‘89

82

17

1

Nov ‘90

70

28

2

Aug ‘91

70

28

2

Nov ‘91

69

27

4

Jul ‘92

69

29

2

Nov ‘92

65

32

3

Nov ‘93

73

25

2

Nov ‘94

74

22

4

Nov ‘95

74

23

3

Jul ‘97

73

24

3

Nov ‘97

77

21

2

Nov ‘98

81

16

3

Nov ‘99

74

25

1

Dec ‘00

75

20

5

Dec ‘01

75

22

3

Dec ‘02

79

20

1

Dec ‘03

78

20

2

Dec ’04

79

19

2

Nov ‘05

83

15

2

Nov ‘06

81

17

2

Oct ‘07

80

18

2

Nov ‘08

80

18

2

Jun ‘09

77

21

2

Nov ‘09

82

16

2

Feb ‘12

80

17

3

Apr ‘14

74

22

4

Jun ‘14

74

22

4


Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Full-time and part-time workers were then asked: “If you became unemployed, do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly – or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 46% (up 2% since April 2014) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. Nearly half of Australians, (49%, unchanged) say it might take longer to find a new job while 2% (down 2%) wouldn’t look and 3% (unchanged) don’t know.

Finding a
New Job
if Unemployed

New job found quickly

May take longer

Wouldn't look

Don’t know*

Year

%

%

%

%

1975

57

33

10

*

1976

57

33

10

*

1977

55

35

10

*

1978

50

41

9

*

1979

54

36

10

*

1980

50

39

11

*

Dec ‘82

44

46

10

*

Oct ‘83

51

41

8

*

Nov ‘84

61

33

6

*

Nov ‘85

58

34

8

*

Nov ‘86

61

30

9

*

Dec ‘87

65

30

5

*

Nov ‘88

69

26

5

*

Nov ‘89

68

26

6

*

Nov ‘90

49

45

6

*

Aug ‘91

39

53

8

*

Nov ‘91

39

53

8

*

Jul ‘92

38

53

9

*

Nov ‘92

39

54

7

*

Nov ‘93

50

43

7

*

Nov ‘94

60

33

7

*

Nov ‘95

58

32

10

*

Jul ‘97

52

42

6

*

Nov ‘97

58

36

6

*

Nov ‘98

55

38

7

*

Nov ‘99

63

30

7

*

Dec ‘00

59

33

8

*

Dec ‘01

54

39

7

*

Dec ‘02

66

29

5

*

Dec ‘03

64

33

3

*

Dec ‘04

67

28

5

*

Nov ‘05

62

34

4

*

Nov ‘06

63

32

5

*

Oct ‘07

72

21

4

3

Nov ‘08

63

34

2

1

Jun ‘09

57

36

4

3

Nov ‘09

54

39

3

4

Feb ‘12

51

43

3

3

Apr ‘14

44

49

4

3

Jun ‘14

46

49

2

3





























“Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4