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L-NP recovers after hitting lowest support since election

Finding No. 5635 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of June 7/8 & 14/15, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,068 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 4% did not name a party on the weekend of June 7/8, 2014 and 1.5% did not name a party on the weekend of June 14/15, 2014.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (55.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted last weekend – June 14/15, 2014.

This is a much improved performance for the Government after the L-NP crashed to 39.5% cf. ALP 60.5% - its lowest point since last year’s Federal Election – following leadership speculation involving former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull during the week leading up to June 7/8, 2014. This week’s swing to the Government comes after Prime Minister Tony Abbott met world leaders and crisis erupted in Iraq last week.

These two Morgan Polls on voting intention were conducted separately over the last two weekends (June 7/8, 2014 and June 14/15, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,068 Australian electors aged 18+. This week the ALP primary vote is at 38% (unchanged from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote is 36.5% (up 1.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (up 1%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5.5% (down 2%) and support for Independents/Others is 8% (down 0.5%).

Support for the Palmer United Party this week is highest in the States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (11%), Tasmania (7%) and Western Australia (7%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in Victoria (4%), New South Wales (4%) and South Australia (3.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 58% well ahead of the L-NP 42% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is closer with the ALP 52.5% still ahead of the L-NP on 47.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in four Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, Victoria: ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%, South Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and Tasmania: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5% while the Coalition leads in the two mining States of Queensland: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and Western Australia: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 98 this week (up 9.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 41.5% (up 4.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 43.5% (down 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (55.5%) has a strong lead over the L-NP (44.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to this week’s (June 14/15, 2014) multi-mode Morgan Poll. However, last week (June 7/8, 2014) the Morgan Poll swung strongly in favour of the ALP (60.5%) cf. L-NP (39.5%) following a week of damaging leadership speculation for the Government sparked off by a meeting between former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull and Palmer United Party Leader Clive Palmer in a Canberra restaurant.

“As leadership speculation subsided this week, the media spotlight turned to Prime Minster Tony Abbott’s first big overseas trip since becoming the national leader. Abbott embarked on a long overseas trip to relieve tensions with Indonesia, commemorate the D-Day landings in France with many other world leaders and to important meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and US President Barack Obama in North America over the past week.

“The public has shown repeatedly over the years that any party that suffers from intense media speculation over a possible leadership change will always lose support in the community. The last two weeks prove how damaging leadership speculation can be – despite Turnbull pledging his loyalty to Abbott and denying any intention of seeking to again become the Liberal Party Leader.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5635 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of June 7/8 & 14/15, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,068 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 4% did not name a party on the weekend of June 7/8, 2014 and 1.5% did not name a party on the weekend of June 14/15, 2014.


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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - June 16, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0