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A clear majority of Australians (88%) think it is important Australia reduces its emissions of carbon dioxide; however Australian electors are now evenly split on the Carbon Tax: 47% want the Carbon Tax repealed cf. (46%) don’t want the Carbon Tax repealed

Finding No. 5637 - This special telephone Morgan Poll on Global Warming and the Carbon Tax was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 14+.

A very large majority of Australians 88% (up 2% since February 2014) think it is important Australia reduces its emissions of carbon dioxide while only 10% (down 1%) don’t think it is important and 2% (down 1%) can’t say according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014).

However Australian electors are evenly split on whether Prime Minister Tony Abbott should repeal the Carbon Tax – 47% (down 2%) support Abbott’s intention to repeal the Carbon Tax while 46% (up 5%) don’t support repealing the Carbon Tax and 7% (down 3%) can’t say.

In terms of Global Warming, 49% (down 1% since February 2014) of Australians say it will be too late if we don’t act now, 29% (down 1%) say Global Warming concerns are exaggerated (the lowest since August 2009); 18% (up 2%) say it is already too late (a record high) and 4% (unchanged) can’t say.

Analysis by Voting Intention

There is broad agreement between supporters of all political parties that it is important Australia reduces its emissions of carbon dioxide with 81% (up 3%) of L-NP supporters, 96% (up 4%) of ALP supporters and 98% (down 2%) of Greens supporters saying it is important while only 17% (down 3%) of L-NP supporters and 2% (down 4%) of ALP supporters say it is not important. Of PUP supporters 76% think it is important carbon dioxide remissions are reduced and 20% say it is not.

However, there is no consensus between supporters of different parties in terms of the Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s intention to repeal the Carbon Tax.

Now a large majority of L-NP supporters (82%, unchanged) say the Carbon Tax should be repealed compared to a small minority of ALP supporters (20%, down 5%) and only a few Greens supporters (5%, down 4%). In complete contrast 95% (up 6%) of Greens supporters and 75% (up 9%) of ALP supporters say the Carbon Tax should not be repealed compared to only 11% (down 1%) of L-NP supporters. Of PUP supporters 60% are in favour of repealing the Carbon Tax and 40% are not.

Analysis of concerns regarding Global warming by voting intention also shows a large divergence between supporters of different parties with 54% (up 5%) of L-NP supporters saying ‘concerns are exaggerated’ compared to only 12% (down 8%) of ALP supporters and only 2% (down 3%) of Greens supporters. But clear majorities of both Greens supporters 66% (down 9%) and ALP supporters 67% (up 5%) say ‘if we don’t act now it will be too late’ compared to 29% (down 8%) of L-NP supporters. Of PUP supporters 30% think ‘concerns are exaggerated’ and 45% say ‘if we don’t act now it will be too late’.

In addition small minorities of supporters for all four parties (although increasing for all four parties) say ‘it is already too late’: Greens supporters 32% (up 12%), ALP supporters 19% (up 3%), 14% of PUP supporters and only 11% (up 3%) of L-NP supporters.

Gary Morgan says:

“Although a huge majority of Australians (88%, up 2% since February 2014) believe Australia should cut its emissions of carbon dioxide, Australian electors are nevertheless evenly split on whether Prime Minister Tony Abbott should follow through with his election commitment to repeal the Carbon Tax: 47% (down 2%) of electors say Abbott should repeal the Carbon Tax and 46% (up 5%) say Abbott shouldn’t.

“This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted just after US President Barack Obama announced a series of ‘executive actions’ to help reduce US emissions of carbon dioxide and as Abbott visited Obama on his first trip to the United States as Australian Prime Minister. Last week Obama set an ambitious target of a 30% cut in US emissions from coal-fired electricity generation by 2030. Despite their apparent differences in philosophy in regards to how to tackle the issue of climate change, Abbott has insisted in media interviews since meeting Obama that there are no disagreements between the two of them on the issue.

“Despite supporters of all parties agreeing Australia should cut its emissions of carbon dioxide, there are clear splits between supporters of different parties in terms of the Carbon Tax: 82% (unchanged) of L-NP supporters say the Carbon Tax should be repealed compared to only 20% (down 5%) of ALP supporters and 5% (down 4%) of Greens supporters. In stark contrast large majorities of ALP supporters (75%, up 9%) and Greens supporters (95%, up 6%) say the Carbon Tax should not be repealed compared to only 11% (down 1%) of L-NP supporters.

“In terms of Global Warming itself, Australians are split on the issue. 49% (down 1%) of Australians say ‘If we don’t act now it will be too late’ compared to 29% (down 1%) that say ‘Concerns are exaggerated’ and 18% (up 2%) that say ‘It is already too late’. Although only a small minority say ‘It is already too late’ – this is a record high number of Australians with the most pessimistic view.”


Finding No. 5637 - This special telephone Morgan Poll on Global Warming and the Carbon Tax was conducted over the last three nights (June 10-12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 637 Australians aged 14+.


Global Warming and the Carbon Tax

Question 1

Respondents were asked: “Which of the following is closest to your view about Global Warming? Do you think concerns are exaggerated; if we don’t act now it will be too late; or, it is already too late?” 

About Global Warming

Total all people aged 14+

 

April
2006

Nov
2008

May
2009

Aug
2009

Nov
2009

Dec
2009

Jan
2010

June
2011

July
2013

Feb
2014

Jun 10-12,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Concerns are exaggerated

13

19

26

27

30

31

31

32

33

30

29

If we don’t act now it will be too late

67

64

58

58

52

50

54

50

49

50

49

It is already too late

15

4

12

11

14

14

12

15

14

16

18

Can’t say

5

3

4

4

4

5

3

3

4

4

4

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


About Global Warming

Australians
14+

Analysis by States & Regions

 

Jun 10-12,
2014

Capital
Cities

Country
Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

WA

SA

Tas#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Concerns are exaggerated

29

26

35

27

28

34

26

31

33

If we don’t act now it will be too late

49

53

42

53

48

45

48

47

50

It is already too late

18

18

18

18

19

15

24

15

12

Can’t say

4

3

5

2

5

6

2

7

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

About Global Warming

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July
2013

Feb
2014

Jun 10-12,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer#

Ind/ Others

Can’t
say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Concerns are exaggerated

34

32

30

54

12

2

30

32

8

If we don’t act now it will be too late

50

50

48

29

67

66

45

43

54

It is already too late

13

14

17

11

19

32

14

21

26

Can’t say

3

4

5

6

2

0

11

4

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.


Should the Carbon Tax be repealed or not?

Question 2

Respondents were then asked: “Do you support Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s intention to repeal the Carbon Tax or not?”

 

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

Oct
2013

Feb 4-6,
2014

Jun 10-12,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer#

Ind/ Others

Can’t
say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes, repeal

51

49

47

82

20

5

60

48

27

No, don’t repeal

38

41

46

11

75

95

40

37

40

Can’t say

11

10

7

7

5

-

-

15

33

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

 

Total all people aged 14+

Analysis by States & Regions

 

Jun 10-12,
2014

Capital
Cities

Country
Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes, repeal

44

43

48

43

41

51

41

44

56

No, don’t repeal

46

48

43

48

51

37

44

50

38

Can’t say

10

9

9

9

8

12

15

6

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

 

Total all people aged 14+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Oct
2013

Feb
2014

Jun 10-12,
2014

Men

Women

14-17#

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes, repeal

50

48

44

50

39

25

27

45

43

49

56

No, don’t repeal

37

40

46

44

49

48

60

45

51

43

36

Can’t say

13

12

10

6

12

27

13

10

6

8

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.


Should Australia reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide?

Question 3

Respondents were then asked: “Do you think it is important Australia reduces its emissions of carbon dioxide?”

 

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

Feb
2014

Jun 10-12,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer#

Ind/ Others

Can’t
say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

85

88

81

96

98

76

80

93

No

12

10

17

2

2

20

19

-

Can’t say

3

2

2

2

-

4

1

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

 

Total all people
aged 14+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Oct
2013

Feb
2014

Jun 10-12,
2014

Men

Women

14-17#

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

87

86

88

86

89

90

91

88

89

84

86

No

10

11

10

13

7

8

9

10

9

12

11

Can’t say

3

3

2

1

4

2

-

2

2

4

3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.

 

Total all people aged 14+

Analysis by States & Regions

 

Jun 10-12,
2014

Capital
Cities

Country
Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

88

88

87

92

89

79

88

86

93

No

10

10

11

6

8

18

11

12

7

Can’t say

2

2

2

2

3

3

1

2

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0