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National (49.5%) holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) as former National Party Cabinet Minister, and recent sole Act NZ MP John Banks resigns from Parliament

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors from June 2-15, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (49.5%, down 3%) but National are still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, up 2%).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is down 1% to 28%, the Greens are up 3% to 12%, New Zealand First is 4% (down 0.5%) and the Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%). Mana Party alliance partners the Internet Party are at 1% (up 0.5%) – a combined 2.5% for the two parties while support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged – down 1pt to 139.5pts with 63.5% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%, down 3% in a fortnight) with a strong election-winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (40%, up 2%) despite losing some support in recent weeks, National remains near its post Budget twelve month high.

“The big news in recent weeks was the guilty verdict handed down to former National Party Cabinet Minister and recent Act NZ sole MP John Banks. Following the guilty verdict handed down to Banks in relation to filing a false donations declaration for the 2010 Auckland mayoral race, Banks immediately resigned from Parliament.

“The new alliance between the Mana Party (1.5%, up 1%) and Internet Party (1%, up 0.5%) has a combined support of 2.5% - the equal highest level of support for a grouping of these two parties. The next few weeks will be crucial if this party alliance is to build support heading into the election, although what is most crucial is that Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira retains his Maori seat of Te Tai Tokerau which should also see Internet Party Leader Laila Harre elected on his ‘coat-tails’ “

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 845 electors from June 2-15, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0