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ALP (57.5%) increases lead over L-NP (42.5%) as new Senate prepares to sit for first time

Finding No. 5659 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of June 21/22 & 28/29, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,797 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win in a landslide (57.5%, up 2%) cf. L-NP (42.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted the last two weekends  –  June 21/22 & 28/29, 2014.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,797 Australian electors aged 18+. Primary support for both major parties is down with the ALP primary vote at 36.5% (down 1.5% from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote is 35% (down 1.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 12% (unchanged), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 7% (up 1.5%) and support for Independents/Others is 9.5% (up 1.5%).

Support for the Palmer United Party increased noticeably on the second weekend following Palmer’s joint announcement on climate change with former US Vice-President Al Gore and is now highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (13%) and Western Australia (10%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (5.5%), Victoria (4.5%), Tasmania (4%) and South Australia (3%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 61.5% well ahead of the L-NP 38.5% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is closer with the ALP 53.5% still ahead of the L-NP on 46.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in all six Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Queensland: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, Western Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, South Australia: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5% and Tasmania: ALP 64% cf. L-NP 36%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 95.5 this week (down 2.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 39.5% (down 2%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 44% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (57.5%, up 2% in a fortnight) has a very strong lead over the L-NP (42.5%) on a two-party preferred basis as the new Senate prepares to sit for the first time next week. The most surprising announcement last week was Palmer United Party Leader Clive Palmer declaring at a joint press conference with former US Vice-President, and renowned global warming campaigner, Al Gore, that he now supports initiatives to combat global warming and climate change. Support for PUP increased to 7% (up 1.5%) following the announcement. 

“Palmer announced that PUP will support the abolition of the Carbon Tax, but only on the condition that Australia implements a Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in its place to operate in line with Australia’s major trading partners. Palmer also announced PUP will oppose the abolition of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, the Renewable Energy Target and the Climate Change Authority. Apart from the abolition of the Carbon Tax, all of these policies are currently opposed by the Abbott Government.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5659 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of June 21/22 & 28/29, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,797 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - June 30, 2014

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - June 30, 2014


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0