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June Australian Unemployment up 0.9% to 10.6% and Under-employment up 1.4% to a record 9.5%. 2.51 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 384,423 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2014 and includes 4,124 to-face interviews in June 2014.

In June 2014 an estimated 1.326 million Australians (10.6% of the workforce) were unemployed. June unemployment is up 0.9% from last month and compared to the same time last year unemployment is also up 0.9%. Analysing long-term trends shows Australian unemployment has risen in June in each of the last four years, and also in five out of the last six years.

The Australian workforce* was 12,508,000 comprising 7,469,000 full-time workers; 3,713,000 part-time workers; and 1,326,000 looking for work according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. The Roy Morgan employment and unemployment figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking for work.

Among those who were employed 1,188,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce* - the highest ever recorded) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is up 1.4% from a month ago and up 0.3% compared to the same time a year ago.

In June in total an estimated 2.514 million Australians (20.1% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is up 2.3% from May and up 1.2% higher than in June 2013.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.6% is a substantial 4.8% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for May 2014 (5.8%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2013

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2013

2,391

19.2

1,352

10.9

703

649

1,039

8.3

Apr–Jun 2013

2,243

18.1

1,176

9.5

588

587

1,067

8.6

Jul–Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Oct–Dec 2013

2,439

19.5

1,337

10.7

734

603

1,102

8.8

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Apr-Jun 2014

2,360

18.9

1,273

10.2

638

635

1,087

8.7

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 2013

2,129

17.3

1,168

9.5

629

539

961

7.8

June 2013

2,346

18.9

1,205

9.7

628

577

1,141

9.2

July 2013

2,398

19.1

1,267

10.1

616

651

1,131

9.0

August 2013

2,257

18.2

1,251

10.1

631

620

1,006

8.1

September 2013

2,286

18.3

1,297

10.4

607

690

989

7.9

October 2013

2,410

19.3

1,333

10.7

726

607

1,077

8.6

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

December 2013

2,503

19.8

1,411

11.2

777

634

1,092

8.6

January 2014

2,545

20.0

1,440

11.3

851

589

1,105

8.7

February 2014

2,641

20.8

1,561

12.3

866

695

1,080

8.5

March 2014

2,410

19.1

1,465

11.6

814

651

945

7.5

April 2014

2,387

18.9

1,308

10.4

628

680

1,079

8.5

April 2014**

2,374

19.0

1,299

10.4

629

670

1,074

8.6

May 2014

2,179

17.8

1,186

9.7

603

583

993

8.1

June 2014

2,514

20.1

1,326

10.6

684

642

1,188

9.5

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 and going forward are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and now at 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.


Gary Morgan says:

“In June Australian unemployment increased to 1.326 million Australians (10.6%, up 0.9%) and under-employment increased to1.188 million (9.5%, up 1.4%). Analysing longer-term trends shows Australian unemployment has now risen in June for the fourth successive year and has increased in June in five out of the last six years in June since the Global Financial Crisis. Now a total of 2.51 million (20.1%) Australians are unemployed or under-employed. This is only the fourth month more than 2.5 million Australians have been unemployed or under-employed – the first since February 2014.

“In recent months unemployment had fallen – although this was driven in part by a declining workforce as people who had been searching for employment ‘gave up’ – while this month saw an increase in both employment (up 142,000 to 11,182,000) and unemployment (up 140,000 to 1,326,000). Looking within the employment figures reveals that the rise in employment was driven by a strong increase in part-time employment – up 177,000 to 3,713,000 while full-time employment fell to 7,469,000 (down 35,000). Increases in part-time employment are strongly co-related with increases in under-employment.

“Clearly Australian unemployment and under-employment is far too high at present and if the Abbott Government wants to stand any chance of winning the 2016 Federal Election it must enact significant reforms to Australia’s industrial relations laws to ‘free up’ the Australian labour market and increase the productivity of the broader Australian labour force.

“The latest Morgan Poll released this week shows the ALP (57.5%) cf. L-NP (42.5%) – a clear lead for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Over the next year L-NP State Governments in Australia’s three biggest States: Victoria (November 2014), New South Wales (March 2015) and Queensland (by June 2015) face elections that will provide a clear indication of whether voters believe Governments are taking the reforms necessary to provide for strong growth in the Australian economy in the future. All three State L-NP Governments are first-term Governments, as is the Abbott Government.

“The new Australian Senate sits for the first time next week and the Abbott Government must find a way to push through its legislative agenda including measures to reduce welfare dependency for unemployed Australians under 30 by forcing young jobseekers to wait for up to six months before receiving unemployment benefits and also to ‘work for the dole’ for at least 25 hours a week to receive unemployment benefits – both measures are a step in the right direction.

“However, although those measures are important the biggest driver of employment growth is a healthy and growing economy. Finding ways to stimulate the Australian economy through targeted tax reform and in turn reducing the ‘red tape’ in the economy which causes the high level of unemployment and under-employment (2.51 million Australians) will ultimately be a major factor in whether the Abbott Government has any chance of being re-elected at the next Federal Election.”


This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 384,423 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2014 and includes 4,124 to-face interviews in June 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)

For further information: 

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2014)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2014)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)


Roy Morgan Unemployment - June 2014 - 10.6%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - June Quarter 2014 - 10.2%

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - June 2014 - 20.1%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.