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National (48%) down but still holds clear election winning lead over Labour/ Greens (40%) as Prime Minister John Key announces $212 million ‘roading and construction’ package for regional New Zealand

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 817 electors from June 16-29, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for National (48%, down 1.5%) but National are still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (40%, unchanged).

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has raised slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is unchanged at 28%, the Greens are unchanged at 12%, New Zealand First is 5.5% (up 1.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly – up 2pts to 141.5pts with 65% (up 1.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23.5% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%, down 1.5% in a fortnight) but still retaining a strong election-winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (40%, unchanged). Today’s poll shows that despite allegations concerning Labour Leader David Cunliffe’s conduct in relation to Chinese businessman Donghua Liu in recent weeks, the controversy hasn’t negatively impacted on Labour support.

“Although Prime Minister John Key’s remarks to the National Party Conference over the weekend will not have impacted on today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan poll, Key’s announcements of an additional $212 million ‘roading and construction’ package to target regional New Zealand is sure to provide a strong boost to National support in these areas. At the 2011 New Zealand Election National won every regional seat in New Zealand bar West Coast Tasman.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 817 electors from June 16-29, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0