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Jokowi leads the way in most parts of Indonesia with a week to go. While women clearly favour Jokowi, men narrowly prefer Prabowo

Finding No. 5666 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential voting was conducted in June 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 3,117 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election.

The Indonesian Presidential Election is too close to call with just a week to go. Long-time favourite Jokowi (52%) holds a narrow lead over Prabowo Subianto (48%) according to yesterday’s Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidential Election conducted in June 2014 with 3,117 Indonesian electors.

Presidential support by Urban/ Rural & Region/ Island Group

Analysing the final Roy Morgan Indonesian Presidential Poll by location shows Jokowi leads in most areas of Indonesia, although it is only a very narrow lead on Indonesia’s most populous island of Java: Jokowi (52.5%) cf. Prabowo (47.5%).

Jokowi’s biggest lead is on the tourist, and Hindu, island of Bali: Jokowi (93%) cf. Prabowo (7%). Jokowi also leads clearly in Sulawesi: Jokowi (60.5%) cf. Prabowo (39.5%); Kalimantan: Jokowi (55%) cf. Prabowo (45%); the Maluku Islands: Jokowi (65.5%) cf. Prabowo (34.5%) and in Nusa Tenggara: Jokowi (68%) cf. Prabowo (32%).

Jokowi’s challenger, Prabowo, leads in the westernmost region of Sumatra: Prabowo (60%) cf. Jokowi (40%) and in the easternmost region of Papua: Prabowo (51.5%) cf. Jokowi (48.5%).


Presidential support by Gender

Analysing by Gender shows Jokowi’s narrow lead is based upon his strong appeal to women. Amongst women Jokowi (55%) is clearly favoured to Prabowo (45%). However, men narrowly favour Prabowo (51%) over Jokowi (49%).


Presidential support by Age

Analysing the support for each candidate also shows a clear difference between Jokowi and Prabowo. Jokowi’s appeal is higher amongst older age groups whilst Prabowo has the edge with younger Indonesians.

  • 17-24yr olds: Prabowo (52%) cf. Jokowi (48%);
  • 25-30yr olds: Prabowo (51%) cf. Jokowi (49%);
  • 31-45yr olds: Jokowi (52%) cf. Prabowo (48%);
  • 46+yr olds: Jokowi (56%) cf. Prabowo (44%).


Debnath Guharoy says:

“The personalities of the two candidates appear to be sending out non-verbal messages to the voters. More women and older voters are responding positively to Jokowi’s caring and earthy traits; the young prefer Prabowo’s strong and dynamic character.”

Electors were asked: "Who would you most likely vote for as president in the Presidential election?”


Finding No. 5666 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential voting was conducted in June 2014 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 3,117 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in all 34 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. 9% of electors couldn’t say who they support in the Presidential Election.

 

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

 

 

Presidential Voting Intention – By Region – June 2014

 

 

Urban/Rural

By Region/ Island Group

Presidential
Candidates

Electors

Urban

Rural

Java

Sumatra

Sulawesi

Kalimantan

Maluku

Nusa
Tenggara

Papua

Bali

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

52

51.5

52.5

52.5

40

60.5

55

65.5

68

48.5

93

Prabowo Subianto

48

48.5

47.5

47.5

60

39.5

45

34.5

32

51.5

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



 

 

Presidential Voting Intention – Gender & Age – June 2014

 

 

Gender

Age

Presidential Candidates

Electors

Male

Female

17-24

25-30

31-45

46+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

52

49

55

48

49

52

56

Prabowo Subianto

48

51

45

52

51

48

44

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Debnath Guharoy:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 812 1052 622

Ira Soekirman:

+62 21 5297 1562

+62 811 1654 000

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

3,000

±1.8

±1.6

±1.1

±0.8