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ALP (56.5%, down 1%) lead reduced over L-NP (43.5%) as new Senate (& PUP Senators) block the repeal of the Carbon Tax

Finding No. 5683 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of July 5/6 & 12/13, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,955 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily (56.5%, down 1%) cf. L-NP (43.5%, up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends  –  July 5/6 & 12/13, 2014.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,955 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite the L-NP gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP improved to 38.5% (up 2% from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote is 34% (down 1%).

This week the L-NP gained stronger preference support from minor parties including the Palmer United Party (PUP) (7.5%, up 0.5% - the equal highest recorded) and Independents/ Others (8.5%, down 1%). Support for the Greens fell slightly to 11.5% (down 0.5%).

Support for the Palmer United Party is now highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (13.5%) and Western Australia (13%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (5.5%), Victoria (5%), Tasmania (6%) and South Australia (5.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support remains strongest amongst women with the ALP 60.5% well ahead of the L-NP 39.5% on a two-party preferred basis. Support amongst men is closer with the ALP 52.5% just ahead of the L-NP on 47.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Western Australia: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%. New South Wales: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Victoria: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%, Queensland: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, South Australia: ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5% and Tasmania: ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 90 this week (down 5.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 36.5% (down 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 46.5% (up 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (56.5%, down 1% in a fortnight) has maintained a significant lead over the L-NP (43.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the new Senate sat for the first time last week. The new Senate welcomed many new crossbenchers including three incoming Palmer United Party Senators that Prime Minister Tony Abbott needs to ‘woo’ to pass many of his Government’s more contentious pieces of legislation.

“Despite an often stated commitment by PUP Leader Clive Palmer that he will help the Abbott Government repeal the Carbon Tax, Palmer’s own party dealt a blow to the Government last week when it voted against the repeal of the Carbon Tax. PUP voted against the repeal on the grounds the Carbon Tax repeal bill didn’t include an amendment mandating power companies to pass on the savings they get as a result of the abolition of the Carbon Tax to consumers.

“It is widely expected a ‘re-worked’ Carbon Tax repeal bill will pass Parliament this week with Palmer’s support. As a successful mining entrepreneur Palmer has a clear interest in seeing both the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax repealed.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5683 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of July 5/6 & 12/13, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,955 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - July 14, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0