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New Zealand real unemployment steady at 8% & NZ under-employment virtually unchanged at 10.2% as RBNZ raises interest rates to 3.5% - highest since March 2009

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering April-June 2014 and in total 6,037 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.

In the June Quarter 2014 according to Roy Morgan:

New Zealand unemployment was 8.0% (unchanged since the March Quarter 2014). This is the equal lowest level of New Zealand unemployment since the September Quarter 2008 (6.9%). Of the 2,611,000 in the NZ workforce an estimated 210,000 (down 2,000) were unemployed and looking for work.

A further 10.2% (down 0.1%) of the workforce* were under-employed – that is working part-time but looking for more work – 267,000 (down 5,000) New Zealanders.

In total 18.2% (down 0.1%) of the workforce (477,000, down 7,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 8.0% is now 2.0% above the 6.0% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the March Quarter 2014.

Compared to a year ago there are 27,000 more New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is lower (8.0%) – now 0.8% less than the June Quarter 2013 (8.8%). 

            Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate



Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2010

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2010

435

17.4

252

10.1

129

123

183

7.3

Apr-June 2010

472

19.3

237

9.7

130

107

235

9.6

July-Sep 2010

436

17.8

223

9.1

116

107

213

8.7

Oct-Dec 2010

486

20.0

261

10.8

119

143

225

9.3

2011

Jan–Mar 2011

510

20.5

288

11.6

149

139

222

8.9

Apr-June 2011

418

17.1

237

9.7

116

121

181

7.4

July-Sep 2011

457

18.4

234

9.4

141

93

223

9.0

Oct-Dec 2011

493

19.0

245

9.4

118

127

248

9.9

2012

Jan–Mar 2012

515

20.3

286

11.1

125

161

229

9.2

Apr-June 2012

467

18.7

228

9.1

105

123

239

9.6

July-Sep 2012

449

17.7

223

8.8

124

99

226

8.9

Oct-Dec 2012

505

19.5

243

9.4

124

119

262

10.1

2013

Jan-Mar 2013

518

19.9

252

9.7

139

113

266

10.2

Apr-Jun 2013

478

18.4

228

8.8

122

106

250

9.6

Jul-Sep 2013

450

17.1

223

8.5

102

121

227

8.6

Oct-Dec 2013

519

19.8

223

8.5

104

119

296

11.3

2014

Jan-Mar 2014

484

18.3

212

8.0

105

107

272

10.3

Apr-Jun 2014

477

18.2

210

8.0

111

99

267

10.2

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand June Quarter 2014 employment figures show New Zealand unemployment steady at 8.0% (unchanged) with a further 10.2% (down 0.1%) under-employed. These are the last Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment figures to be released before September’s New Zealand Election and provide a very positive indicator for Prime Minister John Key.

“When Key won a second-term in office in November 2011 Roy Morgan New Zealand unemployment was considerably higher at 9.4%. The strong performance of the New Zealand economy over the last two-and-a-half years has seen a considerable decline in unemployment – now at 210,000 (the lowest number of unemployed New Zealanders since September Quarter 2008 (164,000)). Unemployment in New Zealand is significantly lower than across the Tasman in Australia – currently at 10.6%.

“A special Roy Morgan NZ electorate map released today shows a ranking of unemployment by each New Zealand electorate and shows a strong concentration of higher unemployment in the more densely populated North Island – particularly in the Auckland metropolitan region, and much lower unemployment in the more rural South Island. Interestingly, the five current electorates with the highest unemployment in New Zealand are all Labour-held electorates (the highest is Manukau East (17.9%) whilst the seven electorates with the lowest unemployment in New Zealand are all held by National with Selwyn (3.5%) clearly the electorate with the lowest unemployment.”

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering April-June 2014 and in total 6,037 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of quarterly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.

Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.

Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012.

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

Roy Morgan New Zealand v Statistics New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment

Roy Morgan & Statistics New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment


Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Data Tables

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Unemployment Figures in Australia.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size % Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2