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L-NP (45.5%) increases its support after Abbott Government’s strong response to downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, but still trails ALP (54.5%)

Finding No. 5707 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of July 19/20 & 26/27, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,296 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

The L-NP (45.5%, up 2%) has increased its support after the Abbott Government’s strong response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, but still trails the ALP (54.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends  –  July 19/20 & 26/27, 2014.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,296 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite the L-NP gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP improved to 39% (up 0.5% from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote rose strongly to 38% (up 4%).

Support fell for all minor parties this week. The Greens fell slightly to 10.5% (down 1%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) fell 2.5% to 5% and Independents/ Others fell 1% to 7.5%.

Support for the Palmer United Party is highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (8%) and Western Australia (7%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (4%), Victoria (5%), Tasmania (2%) and South Australia (2.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is strongest amongst women with the ALP 59% well ahead of the L-NP 41% on a two-party preferred basis while men are almost evenly split: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%, Victoria: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, South Australia: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5% and Tasmania: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%. In contrast, the L-NP maintains a narrow lead in Queensland after Premier Campbell Newman’s ‘mea culpa’ last week: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 99.5 this week (up 9.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 41% (up 4.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (down 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the highest Government Confidence Rating since mid-April when the pre-Budget rhetoric began.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (45.5%, up 2% in a fortnight) has increased its support after the Abbott Government’s strong response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, but still significantly trails the ALP (54.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis following the tragedy which occurred on Thursday July 17.

“The Abbott Government’s forceful response – advocating a United Nations resolution to demand a full investigation into the terrible crash which killed 298 people over Eastern Ukraine has been widely praised – including by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. As many as 39 Australian citizens or residents are believed to have perished when the jet was shot down.

“Along with a rise in support for the Government, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 99.5 (up 9.5pts) and is now at its highest since mid-April – immediately before media speculation began about Treasurer Joe Hockey’s ‘tough Budget’.

“The other trend evident in this week’s Morgan Poll is a significant fall in support for the minor parties. The Greens have fallen to 10.5% (down 1%), the Palmer United Party has fallen to 5% (down 2.5%) and support for Other Parties/ Independents has fallen to 7.5% (down 1%). This is the lowest level of support for the minor parties since early February and indicates that in troubled times support returns to the major parties at the expense of the minor parties. The same phenomenon occurred during the run-up to the Iraq War as Australia faced a significant national security issue.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5707 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends of July 19/20 & 26/27, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,296 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.


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Data Tables


Latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - July 28, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR - 99.5pts


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0