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National (46%) lead over Labour/ Greens (42%) cut significantly as Key rules out deal with Conservative Party but says National would consider a deal with NZ First (5%)

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for National (46%, down 5% - the lowest since May) now with a significantly reduced lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%) just two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is 30% (up 6.5%), but the Greens are down 3% to 12%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First is 5% (down 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (up 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would likely depend on which major party New Zealand First decided to back to lead a Government – this is contingent on NZ First gaining at least 5% support and being returned to Parliament.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135pts (down 7.5pts) with 60% (down 5.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence this week rose to 99.5pts (up 9.5pts).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a definite tightening between the governing National (46%, down 5% in a fortnight) and a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%). Crucially, Prime Minister John Key has this week ruled out doing an electorate deal with the right-wing Conservative Party led by Colin Craig in the seat of East Coast Bays, while at the same time encouraging National voters to support United Future Leader Peter Dunne in the seat of Ohariu and Act NZ candidate David Seymour in the seat of Epsom.

“In addition, Key has also floated the possibility of doing a deal with former National Party Cabinet Minister, and current New Zealand First (5%, down 1%) Leader, Winston Peters – but that Peters must state his position on a number of issues. Today’s NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows Peters may once again hold a key position in determining who the New Zealand Prime Minister is after September’s election – as long as NZ First can gain more than the threshold of 5% support nationwide.” 

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 818 electors from July 14-27, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.


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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0