Back To Listing

National re-elected to third term with record high vote as Labour slumps to worst result in over 90 years

Prime Minister John Key has led National back into Government at an election which saw National capture 48.06% of the vote – its highest share under the MMP voting system and the highest since the 1951 New Zealand election at which it captured a record 53.99% of the vote. Labour (24.69%) has also slumped below a quarter of the vote and recorded its lowest share of the vote for over 90 years – since 1922 (23.70%). NZ First (8.85%) recorded its highest share of the vote in over a decade – since the 2002 New Zealand Election.

Prime Minister John Key has led National back into Government at an election which saw National capture 48.06% of the vote – its highest share under the MMP voting system and the highest since the 1951 New Zealand election at which it captured a record 53.99% of the vote. Labour (24.69%) has also slumped below a quarter of the vote and recorded its lowest share of the vote for over 90 years – since 1922 (23.70%). NZ First (8.85%) recorded its highest share of the vote in over a decade – since the 2002 New Zealand Election.

The Pollsters

The New Zealand-Herald Digipoll was the most accurate pollster at this year’s NZ Election while the Roy Morgan Poll was the equal second most accurate on results for all parties. The Roy Morgan Poll coveried the two weeks September 1-14 – before the revelations provided by Internet-Mana Party Leader Kim Dotcom that the New Zealand Government spied on its 'citizens'. The election results show the revelations did not increase support for the Internet-Mana Party or Greens but resulted in a 'backlash' which increased support for National.

All pollsters over-estimated the Greens share of the vote by between 1.08% (Herald Digipoll) and a large 4.38% (3 News). The Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.48%. In contrast, all pollsters under-estimated the NZ First share of the vote – the closest being the Herald Digipoll (0.45%), the Roy Morgan Poll (0.85%) and ONE News Colmar Brunton (0.85%). Fairfax Media-Ipsos underestimated NZ First by 2.25%.

NEW ZEALAND VOTING INTENTION – Primary Vote Predictions

 

National

election

Sept 20,

2014

Sept 1-14

Sept 9-15

Sept 13-17

Sept 11-17

Sept 13-17

 

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

 

NZ Roy
Morgan Poll

3 News – Reid

Research

ONE News

Colmar
Brunton

Herald

Digipoll

Fairfax Media-Ipsos

Actual

Result

%

error

%

error

%

error

%

error

%

error

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample Size

 

(935)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(775)

(1,000)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

48.06

46.5

-1.56

44.5

-3.56

45.0

-3.06

48.2

+0.14

47.7

-0.36

 

 

 

 

 

Labour

24.69

24.0

-0.69

25.6

+0.91

25.0

+0.31

25.9

+1.21

26.1

+1.41

 

 

 

 

 

Greens

10.02

13.5

+3.48

14.4

+4.38

12.0

+1.98

11.1

+1.08

12.0

+1.98

 

 

 

 

 

NZ First

8.85

8.0

-0.85

7.1

-1.75

8.0

-0.85

8.4

-0.45

6.6

-2.25

 

 

 

 

 

Maori Party

1.29

1.5

+0.21

1.1

-0.19

1.6

+0.31

1.1

-0.19

0.9

-0.39

 

 

 

 

 

ACT NZ

0.69

0.5

-0.19

0.1

-0.59

0.6

-0.09

0.5

-0.19

0.3

-0.39

 

 

 

 

 

United Future

0.22

0.5

+0.28

0.1

-0.12

0.0

-0.22

0.2

-0.02

0.0

-0.22

 

 

 

 

 

Internet-MANA Party

1.26

1.0

-0.26

2.0

+0.74

1.8

+0.54

1.0

-0.26

0.9

+0.36

 

 

 

 

 

Conservative

4.12

3.5

-0.62

4.9

+0.78

4.4

+0.28

3.3

-0.82

4.5

+0.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind./ Other

0.8

1.0

+0.20

0.2

-0.60

1.6

+0.80

0.3

-0.50

1.0

+0.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nat/Act NZ/

50.26

49.0

-1.26

45.8

-4.46

47.2

-3.06

50.0

-0.26

48.9

-1.36

Maori/United

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average error on all parties

0.8

1.6

0.8

 

0.5

0.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average error on major parties (5% threshold)*

1.6

2.6

1.6

 

0.7

1.5

*To claim List Seats in the NZ Parliament a political party must attain at least 5% of the Party Vote nation-wide. At the 2014 New Zealand Election this was achieved by National (48.06%), Labour (24.69%), Greens (10.02%) and New Zealand First (8.85%).


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1