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ALP increases its lead over L-NP (56%:44%)

Finding No. 5729 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 2/3 & 9/10, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,207 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

The ALP has increased its support to 56% (up 1.5%) over the L-NP (44%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after last week’s ABS unemployment figures showed Australian unemployment rising to a 17 year high of 789,000 (6.4%) and the Government set to impose additional requirements on Australians collecting unemployment benefits.

This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,207 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP fell to 38% (down 1% over the past fortnight) whilst the L-NP primary also fell, to 37.5% (down 0.5%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends – August 2/3 & 9/10, 2014.

Support rose slightly for all minor parties this week. The Greens rose to 11% (up 0.5%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) rose 0.5% to 5.5% and Independents/ Others rose 0.5% to 8%.

Support for the PUP is highest in the three states which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (10.5%), Tasmania (8.5%) and Western Australia (5%). Support for PUP is lower in New South Wales (3.5%), Victoria (3.5%) and South Australia (4.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is strongest amongst women with the ALP 58% well ahead of the L-NP 42% on a two-party preferred basis while men also clearly now support the ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP with its strongest advantage among younger Australians most affected by the Abbott Government’s proposed requirements on Australians collecting unemployment benefits. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP (67.5%, up 7%) cf. L-NP (32.5%, down 7%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (66.5%, up 2%) cf. L-NP (33.5%, down 2%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (58%, up 2%) cf. L-NP (42%, down 2%); 50-64yr olds narrowly favour the ALP (51.5%, down 3.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, up 3.5%); while those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (55.5%, down 3.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%, up 3.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Victoria: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%, Queensland: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, South Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5% and Tasmania: ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 92.5pts this week (down 7pts over the past fortnight). Now 45% (up 3.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and just 37.5% (down 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has received a boost today with the ALP (56%, up 1.5%) now even further ahead of the L-NP (44%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. Today’s Morgan Poll shows the boost the Abbott Government received in the last Morgan Poll – taken after the loss of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine – was only temporary. The rise in support the Government received after both Tony Abbott and Julie Bishop demonstrated strong leadership on the world stage has already dissipated.

“Today’s Morgan Poll follows the controversial changes to unemployment benefits – requiring people to apply for 40 jobs a month to qualify and the release last week of the July ABS unemployment estimates showing Australian unemployment at a 17 year high of 789,000 (6.4%).

“Analysing voting trends by age group shows a noticeable deterioration by the Government in younger age groups: 18-24yr olds now favour the ALP (67.5%, up 7%) cf. L-NP (32.5%, down 7%) while 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (66.5%, up 2%) cf. L-NP (33.5%, down 2%).

“The Roy Morgan July unemployment figures in fact show real unemployment in Australia is much higher – 10.2% unemployed in July (1.265 million) and a further 8.7% of Australians under-employed (1.079 million). These unemployed are disproportionately represented by younger Australians (under 35), and the high levels of unemployment in these age groups is a key reason the ALP is so heavily favoured by younger Australians.

“In addition to the high level of unemployment that the ABS is finally starting to reveal, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to 92.5 (down 7pts) indicating that Australians are questioning whether the Government has a clear vision for Australia and the ability to implement that vision.“

 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5729 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 2/3 & 9/10, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,207 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - August 11, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0