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ALP lead down slightly over L-NP (55.5%:44.5%)

Finding No. 5751 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 16/17 & 23/24, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,691 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

ALP support fell to 55.5% (down 0.5%) still well ahead of the L-NP 44.5%, (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,691 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends – August 16/17 & 23/24, 2014.

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll*, show the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) – for trends see Morgan Poll historic data table.

Despite ALP support falling slightly on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP rose slightly to 38.5% (up 0.5% over the past fortnight) whilst the L-NP primary support was unchanged at 37.5%. Support amongst the other parties shows The Greens fell to 10.5% (down 0.5%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) fell 1% to 4.5% after PUP Leader Clive Palmer’s outburst against the Chinese Government last week while Independents/ Others rose 1% to 9%.

Support for PUP is highest in two of the three States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (6.5%) and Tasmania (6.5%). Support for PUP is lower in New South Wales (4%), Victoria (3%), Western Australia (4%) and South Australia (4.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows ALP support is strongest amongst women: ALP 58% well ahead of the L-NP 42% on a two-party preferred basis. However even among men the ALP is ahead (ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP (64%) cf. L-NP (36%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (64.5%) cf. L-NP (35.5%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (60.5%) cf. L-NP (39.5%); 50-64yr olds narrowly favour the ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%); only among those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (54.5%) cf. ALP (45.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Queensland: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%, Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, South Australia: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5% and Tasmania: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 94pts this week (up 1.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 44% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 38% (up 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP (55.5%, down 0.5%) has maintained a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (44.5%, up 0.5%) during the mid-year Parliamentary break. Parliament returns this week to once again debate the Government’s Federal Budget and the Abbott Government has signaled in recent weeks a renewed commitment to negotiating with Senate cross-benchers.

“The L-NP is facing major issues on all fronts:

  • The Federal Budget and finding a way to govern with a hostile Senate.
  • The Clive Palmer factor – which escalated last week when Palmer labeled the Chinese as “mongrels” and “bastards” and it appears Palmer’s outburst has immediately cost PUP support – now at 4.5% (down 1%), and PUP’s lowest level of support since the new Senate first sat in early July.
  • International unrest and the possibility that Prime Minister Tony Abbott may need to send troops to the Middle East.
  • Against this turbulent backdrop the one area Prime Minister Tony Abbott can show leadership and make a real difference to the political turbulence in Australia is fixing Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment (2.3 million in July according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates).”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5751 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 16/17 & 23/24, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,691 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - August 25, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0