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‘Dirty Politics’ muddies the water for major parties in New Zealand

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 762 electors from August 18-31, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a sharp decline in support for National (45%, down 3%) following the revelations of Nicky Hager’s ‘Dirty Politics’ and a similar gain in support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance (42%, up 3%). However, the gain in support has come entirely from a rise in support for the Greens (16%, up 4.5%) – now at their highest since April 2012, while potential governing partners Labour’s support has declined to 26% (down 1.5%) just over two weeks before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly overall with the Maori Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%). Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First looks set to return to Parliament with 6% (down 0.5%), while the Internet-Mana Party alliance has declined to 1% (down 1.5%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ has climbed to 3.5% (up 2.5% and the highest ever recorded) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call with NZ First likely to choose New Zealand’s next Government.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 136pts (down 3pts) with 61% (down 2.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25% (up 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating (136) remains substantially higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week rose to 94pts (up 1.5pts).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“The latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows a sharp drop for National (45%, down 3%) following the revelations outlined in Nicky Hager’s ‘Dirty Politics’ book. This is the lowest support for National since May and increases the chances that NZ First (6%, down 0.5%) will play a decisive role in determining New Zealand’s next Government.

“The main Opposition potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, up 3%) has increased its support – however this is entirely due to a surge in Greens support (16%, up 4.5%) which has come at the expense of both major parties. Labour has fallen to 26% (down 1.5%) although Labour Leader David Cunliffe’s strong performance in the first New Zealand Election Leader’s debate last Thursday analysed closely by the Roy Morgan Reactor here should see Labour strengthen their position.

“Last week’s resignation of Justice Minister Judith Collins added to the pressures faced by the Government. Collins has been implicated in several ‘scandals’ – most recently accused of undermining both the Serious Fraud Office and the Financial Market Authority. However, Prime Minister John Key’s improved showing in last night’s second Leader’s debate in Christchurch may have stopped the bleeding on these issues. Key went on the ‘front foot’ for the first time over the ‘Dirty Politics’ revelations, publicly condemning right-wing Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater.

“The Roy Morgan Scoop NZ Election Reactor is the best tool available to closely monitor how New Zealand electors judge their leaders and show which Leader is connecting strongly with the key demographics. In the run-up to the election it looks increasingly likely minor parties will play a key role in forming the next Government.

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan poll shows support for National’s current coalition partners largely static or falling, however, the Conservative Party has surged to 3.5% (up 2.5%). This is the highest ever support for the Conservative Party and likely shows that disillusioned National supporters have drifted to Colin Craig’s party in the wake of the many scandals plaguing the Government. If the Conservative Party can maintain this momentum over the next two weeks they stand a chance of crossing the 5% threshold and winning seats in Parliament for the first time.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 762 electors from August 18-31, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0