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Australians narrowly approve sending 600 troops to Iraq. Men and Australians 35+ approve, while women and younger Australians (18-34) disapprove.

Finding No. 5803 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,239 Australian electors today, Monday September 15, 2014. They were asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq?”

A special snap SMS Morgan Poll today shows a narrow majority of Australians approve (54%) of the decision of Prime Minister Tony Abbott to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq and 46% disapprove. Today’s special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with 1,239 electors around Australia.

Analysis by Voting Preference

Analysing the results by voting preference shows strong approval for sending 600 Australian troops to Iraq from Liberal voters (72% approve cf. 28% disapprove) and National voters (66% approve cf. 34% disapprove) while a majority of ALP voters disapprove (59%) cf. approve (41%). Greens voters are clearly against sending 600 troops to Iraq (80.5% disapprove cf. 19.5% approve).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows a clear gender split with men in favour and women against the policy:

  • Men: Approve (62%) cf. disapprove (38%);
  • Women: Disapprove (53.5%) cf. approve (46.5%).

Analysis by Age

Analysing by age shows younger Australians (under 35) against sending 600 Australian troops to Iraq while older Australians (35+) showing support for the policy:

  • 18-24yr olds: Disapprove (59%) cf. approve (41%);
  • 25-34yr olds: Disapprove (52.5%) cf. approve (47.5%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Approve (58%) cf. disapprove (42%);
  • 50-64yr olds: Approve (59%) cf. disapprove (41%);
  • 65+yr olds: Approve (54.5%) cf. disapprove (45.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s decision to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq has won support from a narrow majority (54%) of Australians according to a special snap SMS Morgan Poll of 1,239 Australians today while slightly fewer disapprove (46%) of the policy.

“Support for sending the troops is clearly higher amongst Liberal voters (72% approve) and National voters (66% approve) while both ALP voters (59% disapprove) and Greens voters (80.5% disapprove) are against the policy.

“Comparing with past conflicts shows that support for sending the troops to Iraq is higher now than it was at any time during the 2003 Iraq War. The highest was 52% approval on March 24-25, 2003, although it is lower than it was during the Persian Gulf War in 1991 (57% approved in December 1990 and 72% approved in February 1991) and also lower now than during the Vietnam War (58.5% approved in May 1965).

“Support for sending the troops is also much stronger amongst men (62% approve cf. 38% disapprove) than women (53.5% disapprove cf. 46.5% approve) while older Australians aged 35+ are clearly in favour and Australians aged 18-34 aren’t.”

Finding No. 5803 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,239 Australian electors today, Monday September 15, 2014. They were asked Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq?”

Question:

Australian Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq?”

Previous question asked in May 1965: “Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to send 800 Australian troops to South Vietnam?”

Previous question asked in 1990, 1991, 2002 and 2003: “About Australians being part of an American military force used to depose Saddam Hussein, do you approve or disapprove of Australians being part of the American military force?”

 

Australian Troop deployments – Vietnam, Gulf War, Iraq War, Iraq (2014)

 

Vietnam War

Gulf War (1991)

Iraq War (2003)

Iraq (2014)

 

May
1965*

Dec
1990*

Feb
1991*

Sep
2002*

Dec
2002*

Mar 19-20,
2003*

Mar 24-25,
2003*

Sep 15,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

58.5

57

72

43

46

49

52

54

Disapprove

41.5

43

28

57

54

51

48

46

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Undecided electors in May 1965 (11%); December 1990 (5%); February 1991 (3%); September 2002 (6%); December 2002 (3%); March 19-20, 2003 (5%) & March 24-25, 2003 (3.5%).

 

Voting Preference

 

Total

Liberal

National

ALP

Greens

Other

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

54

72

66

41

19.5

56

50.5

Disapprove

46

28

34

59

80.5

44

49.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Age & Gender

 

Total

Gender

Age

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

54

62

46.5

41

47.5

58

59

54.5

Disapprove

46

38

53.5

59

52.5

42

41

45.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

State & City/ Country

 

 

State

Region

 

Total

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

City

Country

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

54

53.5

52.5

58

55.5

53

49

53

55.5

Disapprove

46

46.5

47.5

42

44.5

47

51

47

44.5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4