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John Key set to win narrow election victory on Saturday as Labour/Greens slump puts Winston Peters in powerful position as NZ First surge to 8%

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 935 electors from September 1-14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, up 1.5%) set to win a third term in Government on Saturday as support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance slumps to 37.5% (down 4.5% - the lowest since November 2011). Support for both main opposition parties has slipped – Labour (24%, down 2%) and the Greens (13.5%, down 2.5%) less than a week before Saturday’s NZ Election.

New Zealand First (8%, up 2%) appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the Labour/ Greens slump as the election approaches and former Deputy Prime Minister and New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters looks set to have a prominent role in the new Parliament with NZ First projected to win as many as 10 seats. This is the highest support for NZ first for nearly ten years since August 2005.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has risen slightly overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%). The Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1% (unchanged) while support for the Conservative Party of NZ is at 3.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held last weekend the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that Prime Minister John Key would retain Government with his National (58) - Maori Party (3) - Act NZ (1) - United Future (1) Coalition securing 63 out of 121 seats in Parliament.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 138pts (up 2pts) with 62% (up 1%) saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (down 1%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The NZ Government Confidence Rating (138) remains substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 95pts.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (46.5%, 58 seats) set to win a third term in Government on Saturday with the continued support of the Maori Party (1.5%, 3 seats), Act NZ (0.5%, 1 seat) and United Future (0.5%, 1 seat) – a majority of 63 seats in a 121 seat Parliament.

“Prime Minister John Key is likely to repeat the feat of his predecessor, Helen Clark, and win a third straight term in office as National has stretched its lead over the main Opposition Labour/ Greens alliance (37.5%, down 4.5%). Both parties lost support in the past fortnight with Labour slumping to 24% (down 2%) and the Greens falling to 13.5% (down 2.5%).

“Today’s results show Key has successfully weathered the scandals of recent weeks – including the resignation of Justice Minister Judith Collins and also the allegations revealed in Nicky Hager’s controversial book – ‘Dirty Politics’.

“However, today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll doesn’t cover the latest allegations made on Sunday by Kim Dotcom about the surveillance society in New Zealand. If these revelations land a blow on John Key National could fall short of the crucial 45% level and potentially leave NZ First as ‘king-makers’ after the election.

 “Only a few days before the election there are still 5% of NZ electors undecided about their voting preference, and these electors could well prove crucial. However, NZ First Leader Winston Peters appears likely to once again claim the title as the best campaigner with support for NZ First increasing to 8% (the highest NZ First support since August 2005) enough to win as many as 10 seats in the new Parliament.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 935 electors from September 1-14, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Projected 2014 New Zealand Election Seat Breakdown

ELECTION RESULTS

National

Labour

Green

Party

NZ

First

Act

NZ

United

Future

Maori

Party*

Internet
-Mana*

Conservatives*

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

2002 NZ ELECTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 27, 2002

20.93

41.26

7.00

10.38

7.14

6.69

n/a

n/a

n/a

6.59

SEATS

27

52

9

13

9

8

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

62-58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2005 NZ ELECTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 17, 2005

39.10

41.10

5.30

5.72

1.51

2.67

2.12

n/a

n/a

2.48

SEATS

48

50

6

7

2

3

4

n/a

n/a

1

61-60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 NZ ELECTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 8, 2008

44.93

33.99

6.72

4.07

3.65

0.87

2.39

n/a

n/a

3.38

SEATS

58

43

9

0

5

1

5

n/a

n/a

1

69-53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011 NZ ELECTION

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 26, 2011

47.31

27.48

11.06

6.59

1.07

0.60

1.43

1.08

2.65

0.73

SEATS

59

34

14

8

1

1

3

1

0

0

64-57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROY MORGAN POLL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 1-14, 2014

46.5

24

13.5

8

0.5

0.5

1.5

1

3.5

1

PROJECTED SEATS: 63-58

58

30

17

10

1

1

3

1

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOVERNING COALITIONS AT PREVIOUS ELECTIONS



Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0