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ALP in ‘Box Seat’ for Victorian State Election.<BR>Coalition still ahead in NSW & Queensland

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend September 26-29, 2014 with a cross-section of 6,233 Australian electors including 1,816 New South Wales electors, 1,706 Victorian electors, 1,190 Queensland electors, 496 Western Australian electors, 493 South Australian electors and 293 Tasmanian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over the last few days (September 26-29, 2014) with a representative cross-section of 6,233 Australian electors around Australia shows the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) leading strongly on a two-party preferred basis in Victoria ahead of November’s State Election. However, the Coalition leads in NSW: L-NP (53%) cf. ALP (47%) and Queensland: LNP (51%) cf. ALP (49%). Both NSW & Queensland face State Elections early in 2015.

Today’s Morgan Poll results show that minor parties, including the Palmer United Party (PUP) are receiving a significant vote in all States and their preferences are determining the two-party preferred outcome. The Morgan Poll has consistently shown PUP support around Australia between 4% - 7% since the last Federal Election – and consistently above 7% in Queensland.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win a close State Election

2PP: L-NP (53%, down 11.2% since the 2011 NSW Election) cf. ALP (47%, up 11.2%).

Primary vote: L-NP (46%, down 5.1%); ALP (32.5%, up 6.9%), Greens (12%, up 1.7%), Palmer United Party (3.5%, up 3.5%), Christian Democrats (2%, down 1.1%) and Independents/ Others (4%, down 5.9%).

Better Premier (Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v John Robertson (ALP)):
Mr. Baird (70.5%); Mr. Robertson (29.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird: 41%.

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.8% and under-employment is 8.1%. This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 16.9%. (Interviewed August – September 2014).

New South Wales State Election due in March 2015.


VICTORIA: ALP would win a State Election

2PP: ALP (54%, up 5.6% since the 2010 Victorian Election) cf. L-NP (46%, down 5.6%).

Primary vote: L-NP (37.5%, down 7.3%); ALP (34%, down 2.2%), Greens (18%, up 6.8%), Palmer United Party (3%, up 3%), Country Alliance (0.5%, down 0.9%) and Independents/ Others (7%, up 0.6%).

Better Premier (Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP)):
Mr. Napthine (51%); Mr. Andrews (49%); Lead to Mr. Napthine: 2%.

Victorian real unemployment is now 9.1% and under-employment is 10.3%. This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 19.4%. (Interviewed August – September 2014).

Victorian State Election being held on November 29, 2014.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP#: LNP (51%, down 12.1% since the 2012 Queensland Election) cf. ALP (49%, up 12.1%).

Primary vote: LNP (42%, down 7.7%), ALP (35.5%, up 8.8%), Greens (9%, up 1.5%) Palmer United Party (6.5%, up 6.5%), Katter’s Australian Party (2.5%, down 9%), Independents/ Others (4.5%, down 0.1%).

Better Premier (Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP)):
Mr. Newman (50%); Ms. Palaszczuk (50%); Dead Heat.

Queensland real unemployment is now 10.0% and under-employment is 8.3%. This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 18.3%. (Interviewed August – September 2014).

Queensland State Election is being held no later than June 20, 2015.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win a close State Election

2PP: L-NP (52.5%, down 4.8% since the WA State Election on March 9, 2013) cf. ALP (47.5%, up 4.8%).

Primary vote: L-NP (42.5%, down 4.6%), WA Nationals (3%, down 3.1%), ALP (31.5%, down 1.6%), Greens (14%, up 5.6%), Palmer United Party (4.5%, up 4.5%), Christians 1.5% (down 0.3%) and Independents/ Others (3%, down 0.5%).

Better Premier (Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP)): Mr. McGowan (59.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett (40.5%); Lead to Mr. McGowan: 19%.

Western Australian real unemployment is now 10.2% and under-employment is 5.8%. This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.0%. (Interviewed July – September 2014).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP (50.5%, down 2.5% since the SA State Election on March 15, 2014) cf. ALP (49.5%, up 2.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP (40%, down 4.8%), ALP (35.5%, down 0.3%), Greens (10%, up 1.3%), Palmer United Party (6%, up 6%), Family First (4%, down 2.2%) and Independents/ Others (4.5%, unchanged).

Better Premier (Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal)):
Mr. Marshall (50.5%) cf. Mr. Weatherill (49.5%); Lead to Mr. Marshall 1%.

South Australian real unemployment is now 10.6% and under-employment is 8.4%. This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 19%. (Interviewed July – September 2014).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP (53.5%) cf. L-NP (46.5%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: L-NP (39.5%, down 12.5% from the Tasmanian State Election on March 15, 2014), ALP (33.5%, up 6.2%), Greens (19.5%, up 5.7%), Palmer United Party (3%, down 2%) and Independents/ Others (4.5%, up 2.6%).

Better Premier (Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP)):
Mr. Hodgman (63%); Mr. Green (37%); Lead to Mr. Hodgman 26%.

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 10.2% and under-employment is 17.0%. This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 27.2%. (Interviewed July – September 2014).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


Gary Morgan says:

“This special SMS Morgan Poll conducted last weekend shows that if State Elections were held today the ALP would win Government in Victoria; however the Coalition leads in both New South Wales and Queensland – which both face elections early in 2015.

“Victorian Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) faces an uphill battle to achieve re-election in two months with the ALP (54%) cf. L-NP (46%) holding a strong two-party preferred lead. However, despite the party trailing Napthine (51%) leads narrowly as ‘Better Premier’ over Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews (49%).

“The Greens vote in Victoria (18%) is very high and unlikely to be maintained at the Victorian Election – the recent New Zealand Election once again showed Greens support at the Election coming in lower than every pollster had predicted (including the NZ Morgan Poll).

“The Napthine Government needs to provide policies to tackle the high level of Victorian unemployment (9.1%) and under-employment (10.3%) - a total of 19.4% (in August – September 2014 according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates). If not, support will remain strong for both the ALP and the Greens – unless both opposition parties maintain their staunch opposition to the East-West Link (Supported by 63.5% of Victorians according to a recent Morgan Poll).”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales/ Victoria/ Queensland/ Western Australia/ South Australia/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend September 26-29, 2014 with a cross-section of 6,233 Australian electors including 1,816 New South Wales electors, 1,706 Victorian electors, 1,190 Queensland electors, 496 Western Australian electors, 493 South Australian electors and 293 Tasmanian electors.

The Morgan Poll results are more timely, pertinent and relevant than the News Corp poll results released this week in The Australian for South Australia and Queensland – these results were based on polling conducted over three months (July – September 2014) not just last weekend.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results. The latest Newspoll for Queensland shows ‘Others’ polling 18% with no ‘breakdown’ of the figure.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the Queensland Electoral Commission for the Queensland Election the estimate for the 2012 Queensland Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2012 Queensland Election as LNP (63.1%) cf. ALP (36.9%).


For further information:

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Michele Levine:

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