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Australian electors prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Leader although Tony Abbott preferred by L-NP voters. Julie Bishop gains ground on both following strong performance as Foreign Minister

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week of September 30- October 1/2, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 503 electors.

A telephone Morgan Poll over the last three nights this week (September 30 & October 1/2, 2014) finds:

  • Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull is preferred as Liberal Leader by 38% of electors (down 6% since June 3-5, 2014) but still ahead of Prime Minister Tony Abbott (19%, up 4%). Deputy Leader Julie Bishop has improved strongly over the past four months with 16% (up 9%) of electors preferring her as Prime Minister now for the first time ahead of Treasurer Joe Hockey at 6% (down 5%).
  • However, L-NP voters clearly prefer Prime Minister Tony Abbott (41%, up 6%) as Liberal Party Leader ahead of Malcolm Turnbull (24%, down 5%) and Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (17%, up 9%). Treasurer Joe Hockey has lost significant support and is now at only 8% (down 8%).
  • Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is preferred by only 21% (down 1%) of electors as ALP Leader just ahead of 18% (up 2%) who prefer  Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek and 15% (unchanged) who prefer Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese and 10% (up 1%) that prefer former Treasurer Wayne Swan.
  • Amongst ALP supporters Bill Shorten (27%, down 5%) is still favoured over Tanya Plibersek (20%, up 4%), Anthony Albanese (15%, up 2%) and Wayne Swan (9%, down 1%).
  • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, Malcolm Turnbull (42%, down 6%) is clearly preferred to a surging Julie Bishop (23%, up 14%) and Joe Hockey (9%, down 6%).
  • If Opposition Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek (21%, unchanged) is narrowly preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Anthony Albanese (19%, unchanged), followed by former Treasurer Wayne Swan (14%, up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (38%, down 6%) is once again the preferred Liberal Leader clearly ahead of both Prime Minister Tony Abbott (19%, up 4%) and Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (16%, up 9%). Bishop’s support has surged following her strong performance as Foreign Minister dealing with the crash of MH17 in Eastern Ukraine and also the increasing tension in the Middle East.

“However, L-NP supporters still clearly favour Abbott (41%) over both Turnbull (24%) and Bishop (17%). Treasurer Joe Hockey has been the ‘big loser’ in the last four months with only 8% (down 8%) of L-NP supporters now saying they would prefer Hockey as Liberal Party Leader.

“Electors are more confused about who they want leading the ALP with no candidate attracting more than a quarter of the electorate’s support. Current Labor Leader Bill Shorten (21%) narrowly leads Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek (18%) and Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (15%), but 46% of electors either support someone else or can’t say who they support.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week of September 30 - October 1/2, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 503 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Tony Abbott
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

47

51

44

38

24

52

52

25

32

Abbott

18

16

15

19

41

4

-

11

9

J. Bishop

6

7

7

16

17

14

15

12

27

Hockey

19

14

11

6

8

5

5

7

7

Joyce

n/a

n/a

5

3

1

3

3

12

7

Morrison

n/a

n/a

2

2

3

2

-

-

-

Pyne

1

1

1

1

1

1

-

5

5

Robb

1

1

2

*

-

-

-

7

-

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

1

-

-

-

Can’t say

7

9

12

14

4

18

25

21

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.


Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce & Scott Morrison?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

Tony Abbott
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

51

57

48

42

31

54

52

25

37

J. Bishop

9

11

9

23

30

15

15

23

29

Hockey

26

19

15

9

16

5

5

7

9

Joyce

n/a

n/a

6

4

4

3

3

12

7

Morrison

n/a

n/a

3

3

6

2

-

-

-

Pyne

2

2

1

2

2

1

-

5

5

Robb

1

2

2

*

-

-

-

7

-

Someone else

1

1

1

1

2

1

-

-

-

Can’t say

10

8

15

16

9

19

25

21

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

PM

Gillard

PM
Rudd

Prime Minister
Tony Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

11

9

22

21

21

27

11

24

16

Plibersek

n/a

n/a

16

18

15

20

31

-

11

Albanese

n/a

n/a

15

15

13

15

11

26

25

Swan

6

5

9

10

13

9

6

23

6

Bowen

3

4

5

6

7

6

7

-

2

Macklin

4

3

5

4

2

2

7

-

10

Burke

n/a

n/a

3

3

1

3

4

-

3

Rudd

33

42

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gillard

14

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Smith

10

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Combet

5

4

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

2

2

2

1

3

2

7

-

Can’t say

13

13

23

21

27

15

21

20

27

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

PM Gillard

PM Rudd

PM Tony Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

June 11/12,
2013

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

14

15

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Plibersek

n/a

n/a

21

21

17

25

33

6

14

Albanese

n/a

n/a

19

19

17

20

14

31

25

Swan

7

14

13

14

16

16

8

23

8

Bowen

4

6

7

8

10

9

7

-

6

Macklin

4

4

7

5

3

4

9

-

10

Burke

n/a

n/a

5

3

3

5

4

-

3

Rudd

36

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gillard

n/a

16

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Smith

11

13

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Combet

6

7

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

3

2

2

1

4

2

7

-

Can’t say

17

22

26

28

33

17

23

33

34

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Morgan Poll Accuracy — Recent Elections State & Federal (2007-13)

The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2013 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2013 Federal Election for the two-party preferred vote (L-NP: 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) (sample 4,937 electors).

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors). 

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend


The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4