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L-NP gains ground on ALP as Australia enters new war in Iraq

Finding No. 5855 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of September 27/28 & October 4/5, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,151 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.

In early October L-NP support rose to 47% (up 1.5%) but still trails the ALP 53% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,151 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the L-NP was up 1.5% to 40% while ALP support fell 2.5% to 35%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens were at 12% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 3.5% (down 0.5% - lowest PUP support since January) while Independents/ Others rose 1.5% to 9.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in the three States that elected Palmer United Party Senators: Queensland (8.5%), Tasmania (6.5%) and Western Australia (3%). Support for PUP is lower in the rest of Australia: Victoria (2%), New South Wales (2%) and South Australia (1%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support for the L-NP increasing strongly amongst men: L-NP (50.5%, up 2%) cf. ALP (49.5%, down 2%) whereas support for the two parties was little changed amongst women: ALP (56.5%, down 0.5%) cf. L-NP (43.5%, up 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP (63.5%) cf. L-NP (36.5%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (67.5%) cf. L-NP (32.5%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (54.5%) cf. L-NP (45.5%); 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP (51%) cf. ALP (49%); and those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (60.5%) cf. ALP (39.5%).

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in three Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5% and Queensland ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%. The L-NP leads in the other States: South Australia: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%; New South Wales: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% and Western Australia: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 99pts this week (up 3.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 41% (down 1.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 40% (up 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll*, show the ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5 %) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (47%, up 1.5%) has closed the gap on the ALP (53%, down 1.5%) to the narrowest in six months after Australia joined the new Middle Eastern war over the weekend with the RAAF flying their first armed combat missions over Iraq since the Abbott Government committed to joining the US-led bombing campaign.

“The increasing support for the Government also came as Parliament passed tough new anti-terrorism laws last week, with the support of the Opposition, and Immigration Minister Scott Morrison signed a new deal with Cambodia to relocate asylum seekers arriving in Australia to the South-East Asian country.

“Special SMS Morgan Polls conducted in the past few weeks have consistently shown a majority of Australians in favour of taking tough action on a number of issues: 54% of Australian electors approved Abbott’s decision to send 600 Australian troops to Iraq on September 15; 52.5% of Australians approved of the death penalty for deadly terrorist acts in Australia on September 19; 58.5% of Australian electors supported Australia joining US-led airstrikes in Syria on September 24.

“There was considerable discussion last week about ‘banning the burka’ from being worn in Parliament before Prime Minister Tony Abbott eventually announced he was opposed to such a measure. A special SMS Morgan Poll conducted a fortnight ago showed a majority of Australians (55.5%) say that women shouldn’t be allowed to wear the burka in public places (which would include Federal Parliament).”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5855 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of September 27/28 & October 4/5, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,151 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.


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Data Tables

 

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - October 6, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0