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National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 927 electors from September 29 – October 12, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.

The first New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll since the NZ Election shows National (43.5%, down 3.54% since the September 20 Election). This isn’t unusual, National support has dropped after each of John Key’s Election victories. Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.68%), Act NZ 0.5% (down 0.19%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.28%).

However, support for the main opposition Labour Party has crashed to 22.5% (down 2.63% and the lowest support for Labour since the 1914 NZ Election as United Labour). Fellow opposition parties the Greens (17.5%, up 6.8% are at a new record high) while NZ First support is 7% (down 1.66%). The Greens need to work out why their support on Election Day was lower than all the major polls indicated.

For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 5% (up 1.03% a new record high level of support) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1% (down 0.42%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (down 0.35%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be too close to call.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged at 137pts (down 1pt) with 61.5% (down 0.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The NZ Government Confidence Rating remains substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 99pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Prime Minister John Key led National to a convincing election victory a month ago with National increasing its seats in Parliament despite a slight drop in support compared to the record high 2011 New Zealand Election result under the MMP system.

“National (43.5%, down 3.54% since the NZ Election) has failed to gain any post-election boost in support although this is not unusual – National support has now fallen immediately after all three election victories. Coalition partners Act NZ and United Future both retained their seats while the Maori Party lost a seat meaning the Government once again controls 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament.

“After crashing to its worst election result in 92 years – since the 1922 NZ Election, a now leaderless Labour Party has dropped to only 22.5% support (down 2.63% since the NZ Election) – the lowest level of support for Labour since it contested the 1914 NZ Election as ‘United Labour’. The next month promises more pain for Labour before the selection of a new Labour Leader on November 18. After David Cunliffe’s withdrawal from the race this week the leadership contest is now a four-way fight between Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson, interim leader David Parker, Hauraki-Waikato MP Nanaia Mahuta and List MP Andrew Little.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 927 electors from September 29 – October 12, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 2% (down 3%) didn’t name a party.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, interview with Alastair Thompson, Scoop NZ.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0