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L-NP gains ground on ALP after Abbott threatens to ‘shirt-front’ Putin at G20

Finding No. 5881 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of October 11/12 & 18/19, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,131 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.

In mid-October L-NP support rose to 48% (up 1%) but still trails the ALP 52% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won in a close election according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,131 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the L-NP was down 0.5% to 39.5% while ALP support rose 0.5% to 35.5%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens were at 12% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 3.5% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others was unchanged at 9.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (7%) followed by South Australia 5%. Support for PUP is lower in the rest of Australia: Western Australia (2.5%), Victoria (2.5%), New South Wales (2%) and Tasmania (2%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is up for the L-NP amongst women: L-NP (46.5%, up 3%) cf. ALP (53.5%, down 3%). However, support for the L-NP amongst men is down slightly (49.5%, down 1%) cf. ALP (50.5%, up 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds favour the ALP 64% cf. L-NP 36%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%; 50-64yr olds are split L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%; and those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP 62% cf. ALP 38%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%; Victoria: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%; South Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%; New South Wales: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%; Queensland: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. The L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 95.5pts this week (down 3.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 43.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 39% (down 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* also shows the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48 %) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (48%, up 1%) has closed the gap on the ALP (52%, down 1%) to the narrowest in six months after Prime Minister Tony Abbott promised to ‘shirt-front’ Russian President Vladimir Putin at next month’s G20 Leaders’ Meeting being held in Brisbane.

“Abbott made the statement in relation to the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine in mid-July in which 298 civilians lost their lives including 38 Australian citizens and residents.

“Following Abbott’s comments, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop met briefly with Putin on the sidelines of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) held in Milan over the weekend. Bishop stated the talks with Putin about securing further access to the site of the crash for investigators from Australia, Malaysia and the Netherlands were constructive.

“The media’s continuing focus on foreign affairs – including the renewed Australian military action in Iraq and also the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and what Australia should do to assist the international response – are giving the Abbott Government the chance to show leadership.

“The contrast with domestic issues is striking. On the weekend Finance Minister Mathias Cormann called Opposition Leader Bill Shorten an ‘economic girly-man’ because Shorten ‘doesn’t have what it takes to repair the Federal Budget’. Engaging in name-calling of opposition politicians is not an effective way to ensure the Abbott Government passes its more contentious Budget measures which are themselves designed to reduce Australia’s Budget deficit.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 5881 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of October 11/12 & 18/19, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,131 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party. 

For further information:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

 

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - October 20, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0