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ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Slightly Softer in October

ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence has fallen slightly to 134.7 (down 0.3pts m/m) in October. This month’s slight fall was primarily driven by falling confidence amongst respondents about the next 12 months, however an increasing number of respondents said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
HIGHLIGHTS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence has fallen slightly to 134.7 (down 0.3pts m/m) in October. This month’s slight fall was primarily driven by falling confidence amongst respondents about the next 12 months, however an increasing number of respondents said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

  • In terms of personal finances, 53% (down 5ppts m/m) of Vietnamese expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to just 7% (up 2ppts) who expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

  • Of the respondents, 33% (up 2ppts) of Vietnamese said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago compared to 23% (up 2ppts) who said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

  • Considering the Vietnamese economy, 51% (down 3ppts) of Vietnamese expect Vietnam will have ‘good times’ financially during the next twelve months and just 15% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

  • In addition, 61% (up 1ppt) expect Vietnam will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years compared to just 7% (unchanged) who expect ‘bad times’ economically.

  • 42% (up 2ppts) of Vietnamese said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest for this indicator since January 2014) compared to only 14% (down 7ppts) who said now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

Glenn Maguire, ANZ Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific said:

“Within the consumer confidence survey, we find the conflicting influences of asset price deflation and softer consumer goods inflation affecting relative perceptions of financial wealth, particularly the propensity to consume most apparent this month.

"As we previously highlighted, wealth effects from the equity market are a key determinant of consumer confidence in Vietnam and the weakness in the local bourse over the month has clearly weighed on consumer confidence. In terms of personal finances, 53% of households – down 5ppts from last month – expect their family to be better off next year.

"Question 2 on forward-looking financial expectations was a relatively outsized move compared to the other forward-looking questions of the survey. For instance, by comparison, the number of households expecting Vietnam to have good times financially in question 3 was down 3ppts to 51% over the month. Looking further ahead, a slightly larger number of Vietnamese (61%, up 1ppt) expect good times economically over the next five years.

"With consumer price inflation having continued to soften recently, price savvy consumers are now recognising the present as a good time to purchase a major household item. As the survey shows, 42% of Vietnamese, the highest level so far this year, believe now is a good time to purchase a durable good. If anything, this dynamic suggests a slight upside risk to domestic demand going forward.”


For further information
:

Bui Hai Ha (ANZ Vietnam): Office +84 8 5413 7600 (Ext. 3366)

Glenn Maguire (ANZ Chief Economist, Asia-Pacific): Office: +65 6681 8755


ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence - October 2014 - 134.7

ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence - October 2014 - 134.7

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnamese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2014.


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