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New Zealand real unemployment down to 7.1% – lowest since September Quarter 2008 as John Key wins New Zealand Election and third term in office

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering July – September 2014 and in total 5,858 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.

In the September Quarter 2014 according to Roy Morgan:

New Zealand unemployment was 7.1% (down 0.9% since the June Quarter 2014). This is the lowest level of New Zealand unemployment since the September Quarter 2008 (6.9%). Of the 2,685,000 in the NZ workforce an estimated 190,000 (down 20,000) were unemployed and looking for work.

A further 10.3% (up 0.1%) of the workforce* were under-employed – that is working part-time but looking for more work – 277,000 (up 10,000) New Zealanders.

In total 17.4% (down 0.8%) of the workforce 467,000 (down 10,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 7.1% is now 1.5% above the 5.6% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the June Quarter 2014.

Compared to a year ago there are 90,000 more New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is lower (7.1%) – now 1.4% less than the September Quarter 2013 (8.5%).

            Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2010

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan–Mar 2010

435

17.4

252

10.1

129

123

183

7.3

Apr-June 2010

472

19.3

237

9.7

130

107

235

9.6

July-Sep 2010

436

17.8

223

9.1

116

107

213

8.7

Oct-Dec 2010

486

20.0

261

10.8

119

143

225

9.3

2011

Jan–Mar 2011

510

20.5

288

11.6

149

139

222

8.9

Apr-June 2011

418

17.1

237

9.7

116

121

181

7.4

July-Sep 2011

457

18.4

234

9.4

141

93

223

9.0

Oct-Dec 2011

493

19.0

245

9.4

118

127

248

9.9

2012

Jan–Mar 2012

515

20.3

286

11.1

125

161

229

9.2

Apr-June 2012

467

18.7

228

9.1

105

123

239

9.6

July-Sep 2012

449

17.7

223

8.8

124

99

226

8.9

Oct-Dec 2012

505

19.5

243

9.4

124

119

262

10.1

2013

Jan-Mar 2013

518

19.9

252

9.7

139

113

266

10.2

Apr-Jun 2013

478

18.4

228

8.8

122

106

250

9.6

Jul-Sep 2013

450

17.1

223

8.5

102

121

227

8.6

Oct-Dec 2013

519

19.8

223

8.5

104

119

296

11.3

2014

Jan-Mar 2014

484

18.3

212

8.0

105

107

272

10.3

Apr-Jun 2014

477

18.2

210

8.0

111

99

267

10.2

Jul-Sep 2014

467

17.4

190

7.1

111

79

277

10.3

Gary Morgan says:

The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand September Quarter 2014 employment figures show New Zealand unemployment falling to 7.1% (down 0.9%) with a further 10.3% (up 0.1%) under-employed. The fall in unemployment during the third quarter of 2014 to the lowest level of unemployment for six years – since September Quarter 2008 just before New Zealand Prime Minister John Key won his first New Zealand Election against former Prime Minister Helen Clark.

“When Key won a second-term in office in November 2011 Roy Morgan New Zealand unemployment was considerably higher than it is now at 9.4%. The strong performance of the New Zealand economy over the last three years has seen a considerable decline in unemployment – now at 210,000 (the lowest number of unemployed New Zealanders since September Quarter 2008 (164,000)). Unemployment in New Zealand is significantly lower than across the Tasman in Australia – currently at 9.9%."

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering July – September 2014 and in total 5,858 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed. *

The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

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The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of quarterly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.

Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.

Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published. 

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012.
http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

Roy Morgan New Zealand September Quarter 2014 - Unemployment & Under-employment - 17.4%

Roy Morgan New Zealand September Quarter 2014 - Unemployment & Under-employment - 17.4%


Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Data Tables

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Unemployment Figures in Australia.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size % Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2