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ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore October Consumer Confidence Resilient Despite Asset Volatility

The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Singapore. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of October 2014.
HIGHLIGHTS

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence Index fell to 120.2 (down 0.5pts m/m) in October remaining just below the 2014 year-to-date average of 121.1. Driving the slight decline in Singapore Consumer Confidence this month was falling confidence about respondents’ personal financial situations over the next year.

  • In terms of personal finances, 26% (down 1ppt m/m) of respondents said their family is ‘better off’ financially now compared to a year ago; 11% (down 1ppt) of respondents said they are ‘worse off’ financially.

  • Thinking of financial conditions next year, 29% (down 4ppts) of respondents said they expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time compared to 10% (up 2ppts) who expect their family to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest since March 2014).

  • Thinking of economic conditions in Singapore going forward, just under half of respondents 48% (up 4ppts) expect Singapore will have ‘good times’ economically over the next twelve months compared to 13% (up 2ppts) who expect ‘bad times’ economically.

  • Over the longer-term, 45% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect Singapore will have ‘good times’ financially during the next five years and 11% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially (the highest since March 2014).

  • Finally, 19% (up 1ppt) of respondents said now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 21% (unchanged) who said now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:

“We detect considerable uncertainty on the part of Singaporean consumers and fail to see consumer confidence making a significant directional break either up or down, though risks appear to be skewing towards weaker confidence.

"We detect a large proportion of 'undecided' or 'unsure' answers to Q1 and Q2 about respondents’ personal financial situation. Whereas around 45-50% of Indonesian and Vietnamese consumers express an assessment on whether their personal financial situation has improved or is likely to improve, only a quarter of Singaporeans express a firm positive opinion. This is even lower than the number of positive respondents in Thailand where visibility on the financial outlook must surely be more masked by an uncertain political backdrop.

"The significant and ongoing challenges of supply-side restructuring will continue to be a dynamic that clouds multi-year visibility for households. The return of market and economic volatility will cloud short-term visibility. As Singapore is one of the most open to both trade and financial flows, the resilience to renewed volatility in October is somewhat surprising and we would assess the risk slightly to the downside moving forward.

"However, last month we noted that confidence was likely to continue to edge sideways in coming months, an assessment we retain despite downside risks. The large pool of 'uncertain' households in Singapore on both their financial and economic future suggests that large directional moves in consumer confidence in either direction seem highly unlikely till medium-term clarity on supply-side restructuring becomes visible.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence - October 2014 - 120.2

ANZ-Roy Morgan Singapore Consumer Confidence - October 2014 - 120.2

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Singaporean Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2014.


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