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ALP set to win Victorian Election with a month to go

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend October 24-27, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,700 Victorian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention in Victoria conducted over the last few days (October 24-27, 2014) with a representative cross-section of 1,700 Victorian electors shows the ALP (52.5%, down 1.5% since September 2014) with an election-winning lead over the L-NP (47.5%, up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

However, on primary voting intention the L-NP (37.5%, unchanged) still leads the ALP (34%, unchanged). The ALP’s two-party preferred lead is because the high primary vote for the Greens (18.5%, up 0.5%) is boosting the ALP two-party preferred vote into the lead. Other minor parties include the Palmer United Party (PUP), 2.5% (down 0.5%), Family First (2.5%, up 0.5%), Country Alliance (0.5%, unchanged) and Independents/Others (4.5%, down 0.5%).

Better Premier (Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP)):

Premier Denis Napthine (52%, up 1% since September 2014) cf. Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews (48%, down 1%); Lead to Mr. Napthine: 4% (up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This special SMS Morgan Poll in Victoria conducted last weekend shows that if a Victorian State Election was held today the ALP would win Government: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). However, the primary voting intention shows the L-NP (37.5%) leads the ALP (34%) with high Greens support (18.5%) giving the ALP a two-party preferred lead after the distribution of preferences. Despite trailing on a two-party preferred basis Victorian Premier Denis Napthine (52%, up 1% since September 2014) is slightly favoured by Victorian electors over Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews (48%) as ‘Better Premier’.

"The Greens vote is currently very high and unlikely to be maintained at the Victorian Election - recent polling before several National and State Elections has shown the Greens vote high in the months before an election but dropping at the election itself. The high Greens vote is caused by 'disenchantment' with the policies of the two major parties. Both major parties need to give a clear indication about how they're going to solve the high level of unemployment (9.1% in August-September 2014) and under-employment (10.3% in August-September 2014) in Victoria and set out real policies to create jobs."

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend October 24-27, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,700 Victorian electors.

For further information:

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