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ALP increases lead and set to win Victorian Election with 3 weeks to go

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend November 7-10, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,847 Victorian electors.

The ALP 53.5% on a two-party preferred basis (up 1% since October 24-27, 2014) holds an election-winning lead over the L-NP 46.5% (down 1%) according to an SMS Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend (November 7-10, 2014) with a representative cross-section of 1,847 Victorian electors.

However, on primary voting intention the L-NP 38% (up 0.5%) still leads the ALP 36% (up 2%). The ALP’s two-party preferred lead is because the high 18.5% (unchanged) primary vote for the Greens is boosting the ALP two-party preferred vote into the lead. Other minor parties include Family First 2% (down 0.5%), Country Alliance 1% (up 0.5%) and Independents/Others 4.5% (down 2.5%)*.

Better Premier: Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP)

Premier Denis Napthine 51.5% (down 0.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews 48.5% (up 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Napthine: 3% (down 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The key Victorian election issue is the Victorian economy with the loss of industries and many jobs since the Coalition Government was elected four years ago – today a massive 8.8% of Victorians are unemployed and 9.2% are under-employed (Roy Morgan unemployment estimates September/October 2014).

“Premier Denis Napthine maintains that infrastructure spending is the way to create new jobs – with the ALP well in front it is obvious the electorate do not believe this rhetoric that unemployment will drop because of proposed infrastructure spending on education, health and transport including the $6.8 billion on proceeding with the East-West Link tunnel (63.5% according to a special SMS Morgan Poll conducted in September 2014) – which a clear majority of Victorians want.

 “While the Greens vote (18.5%) is likely to drop between now and the election support for the Coalition will only increase with clear policies on creating many more jobs – so far lacking.”

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past weekend November 7-10, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,847 Victorian electors.


Questions:

Victorians were asked (November 7-10, 2014):

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier? 


Voting Preference – Two-Party Preferred

Victorian State Election
November 27, 2010

September
26-29, 
2014

October
24-27, 2014

November
7-10, 2014

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

48.4

54

52.5

53.5

L-NP

51.6

46

47.5

46.5

Total

100

100

100

100

Voting Preference – Primary Voting Intention

 

Victorian State Election
November 27, 2010

September
26-29, 
2014

October
24-27, 2014

November
7-10, 2014*

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.3

34

34

36

L-NP

44.8

37.5

37.5

38

Greens

11.2

18

18.5

18.5

Family First

2.3

2

2.5

2

Country Alliance

1.4

0.5

0.5

1.5

Ind./ Others

4.0

8

7

4

Total

100

100

100

100         

*The Palmer United Party (PUP) announced on Sunday November 9, 2014 that it was not going to stand any candidates in the Victorian Legislative Assembly at Victoria’s State Election. The PUP vote recorded in this survey (2%) has been reallocated between the major parties based on preference flows at the last election.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093