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National enjoy delayed honeymoon with big lead over leaderless Labour before new leader is selected next week

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors from October 27 – November 9, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%, up 6% since early October). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is down slightly with the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is up slightly to 24% (up 1.5%) and down for the other two opposition parties: Greens 14.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 6.5% (down 0.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 2% (down 3%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be easily re-elected.

Despite the boost for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 126pts (down 11pts) with 56% (down 5.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (up 5.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. However, even after this fall the NZ Government Confidence Rating remains substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 99.5pts.

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Prime Minister John Key is this week striding the world stage – visiting the APEC Summit in Beijing, the East Asia Summit in Myanmar and finishing off on the weekend at the G20 Summit in Brisbane. Key has had the chance to meet many world leaders including US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“These meetings are mainly concerned with increasing trade and investment and promoting growth in the world economy, but they also provide a clear opportunity for the newly re-elected Prime Minister to demonstrate his leadership credentials. This week’s Morgan Poll shows National (49.5%) now more than double the Opposition Labour Party (24%).

“The contrast between the two parties is even more striking given Labour is still leaderless following former leader David Cunliffe’s resignation following the election defeat in September. Labour finally selects its new leader next Tuesday (November 18). The Labour leadership contest is a four-way fight between Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson, interim leader David Parker, Hauraki-Waikato MP Nanaia Mahuta and List MP Andrew Little. Given the complicating voting procedures in place it is almost impossible to predict which candidate will emerge as the new leader next week.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors from October 27 – November 9, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.




Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.


For further information:

Contact

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Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0