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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: Two-Steps Forward, One Step Back

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,095 face-to-face interviews.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence declined 1.6% to 113 in the week ending November 16. This fall retraces around half of the improvement over the last three weeks. Despite the lack of momentum in recent months, confidence remains around healthy, long-run average levels, and is consistent with moderate growth in household consumption.

The decline was driven by deteriorating expectations of household finances over the next year (-6.4%) and economic conditions over the next five years (-4.5%).

Perceptions of household finances compared to a year ago, the sub-index most correlated with household spending, has been broadly steady in recent weeks and continues to point to a modest pick-up in household spending (see Figure 4).

ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:

“While it is positive that confidence has been broadly stable in recent months, the failure of confidence to recover to cyclical peaks reached in 2013 is disappointing. The loss of momentum this year may result from sustained weakness in wages growth which may be leaving households in doubt about their capacity to absorb financial shocks and increasing their sensitivity to negative economic news. Nonetheless, there are still good reasons to expect a modest strengthening in confidence and spending into 2015 including a lower AUD, stronger US growth, rising house prices and an improving labour market.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - November 18, 2014 - 113.0

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - November 18, 2014 - 113.0

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - November 18, 2014

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.