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Dan Andrews set to be new Victorian Premier in a week’s time

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier was conducted over the past two nights November 19-20, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,042 Victorian electors.

The ALP 55% on a two-party preferred basis (up 1.5% since November 7-10, 2014) holds a clear election-winning lead over the L-NP 45% (down 1.5%) according to an SMS Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights, November 19-20, 2014, with a representative cross-section of 1,042 Victorian electors.

On primary voting intention the ALP 35.5% (down 0.5%) is just in front of the L-NP 35% (down 3%). The ALP’s two-party preferred lead is strong because the high 19.5% (up 1%) primary vote for the Greens is boosting the ALP two-party preferred vote. Other minor parties include The Australian Sex Party 3% (up 3%), Family First 2% (unchanged) and Independents/Others 5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier (Premier Denis Napthine (Liberal) v Daniel Andrews (ALP)):

Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews 52.5% (up 4%) cf. Premier Denis Napthine 47.5% (down 4%); Lead to Mr. Andrews: 5% (up 8%). This is the first survey showing Daniel Andrews as the Better Premier.

Gary Morgan says:

“Opposition Leader Dan Andrews has grabbed a significant lead with a week to go before the Victorian Election with the ALP (55%) well ahead of the L-NP (45%) on a two-party preferred basis. A victory for the Labor Party will mean the Liberal Government of Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine will be the first one-term Government in Victoria since John Cain Snr. in 1952-1955.

“Although the two major parties are almost level on primary vote: ALP (35.5%) cf. L-NP (35%), the high expected Greens vote (19.5%) would ensure a strong flow of preferences to the ALP. If the high expected Greens vote is maintained over the final week of the campaign a strong Greens vote gives the Greens a good chance of winning their first lower house seat at a Victorian Election in one of the Inner Melbourne seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote or Richmond.

“The Liberal Party’s negative advertising against Labor Leader Dan Andrews has provided Andrews with ‘free’ publicity and not given electors any positive reasons to vote for the Coalition.

“To stand any chance of a late fightback, Victoria Premier Denis Napthine must maintain that his proposed infrastructure on roads and transport will improve the Victorian economy and provide jobs for the many Victorians without work. Today a massive 8.8% of Victorians are unemployed and 9.2% are under-employed (Roy Morgan unemployment estimates September/October 2014) – unfortunately ignored by both parties.”

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier was conducted over the past two nights November 19-20, 2014 with a cross-section of 1,042 Victorian electors.

Questions:

Victorians were asked (November 19-20, 2014):

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for Victoria were held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Mr. Denis Napthine and Mr. Daniel Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier? 

Voting Preference – Two-Party Preferred

Victorian State Election
November 27, 2010

Sep. 26-29, 2014

Oct. 24-27,
2014

Nov. 7-10,
2014

Nov. 19-20,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

48.4

54

52.5

53.5

55

L-NP

51.6

46

47.5

46.5

45

Total

100

100

100

100

100

 

Voting Preference – Primary Voting Intention

Victorian State Election
November 27, 2010

Sep. 26-29, 2014

Oct. 24-27,
2014

Nov. 7-10,
2014*

Nov. 19-20,
2014

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.3

34

34

36

35.5

L-NP

44.8

37.5

37.5

38

35

Greens

11.2

18

18.5

18.5

19.5

Family First

2.3

2

2.5

2

2

Aust. Sex Party

0.5

-

-

-

3

Ind./ Others

4.9

8.5

7.5

5.5

5

Total

100

100

100

100

100

*The Palmer United Party (PUP) announced on Sunday November 9, 2014 that it was not going to stand any candidates in the Victorian Legislative Assembly at Victoria’s State Election. The PUP vote recorded in this survey (2%) has been reallocated between the major parties based on preference flows at the last election.


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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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