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ALP would win a Federal Election – In Victoria the Federal L-NP vote is a lot further behind the ALP than outgoing Premier Denis Napthine received on Saturday

Finding No. 5963 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of November 22/23 & 29/30, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,883 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.

Federal L-NP support rose to 46.5% (up 2%), but was still well behind the ALP 53.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis as the ALP defeated the L-NP in the Victorian State Election. If a Federal Election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,883 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

In Victoria, Federal voting intention shows the ALP (56%) leads the L-NP (44%) – a far larger two-party preferred lead for the ALP than how Victorians voted at the weekend State Election. Today, with only 61.9% of the Victoria vote counted, the ALP (50.9%) has a narrow estimated two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (49.1%). When vote counting has finished the final result will be much closer to 50% cf. 50% as predicted by the final Victorian SMS Morgan Poll last week.

Primary support for the Federal L-NP was up 1% to 39% while ALP support fell 1% to 37.5%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (down 0.5%) – the lowest recorded since prior to the Federal Election last year, while Independents/ Others were up 0.5% to 9.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (4%) and Western Australia (4%) followed by Tasmania (2.5%), Victoria (1.5%), New South Wales (1%) and South Australia (0.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is far higher for the ALP amongst women despite a fall: ALP (57%, down 0.5%) cf. L-NP (43%, up 0.5%). However, support is now level amongst men for the ALP (50%, down 3%) compared to the L-NP (50%, up 3%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%; 50-64yr olds are closer ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%; and those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 62.5% cf. L-NP 37.5%; South Australia: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%; Victoria: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%; Western Australia: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%; New South Wales: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and Queensland: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 98pts this week. Now 42.5% (unchanged) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 40.5% (unchanged) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP 46.5% (up 2%) has narrowed the gap with the ALP 53.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis over the past two weeks despite the Victorian L-NP losing the Victorian State Election on Saturday. However, Federal voting intention in Victoria is far stronger for the ALP (56%) cf. L-NP (44%) than the State Election result on the weekend – an estimated two-party preferred result of ALP (50.9%) cf. L-NP (49.1%) - calculated today based on only 61.9% of the votes cast in the Victorian State Election which have so far been counted – the final figure will be closer to 50% cf. 50% as predicted by the final Victorian SMS Morgan Poll last week.

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows conclusively that Tony Abbott and the Federal Liberal Party are more than 5% less popular in Victoria on a two-party preferred basis than the outgoing Victorian L-NP Government of Denis Napthine. The real issue for the Prime Minister at the moment is his pledge for ‘No broken promises’ – ‘No cuts to the ABC/SBS’ and ‘No new taxes’

“The Victorian State Election marked the first time a first-term Government in Victoria had lost re-election since 1955 – nearly sixty years ago. Many electors were critical of the Victorian Government for ‘not doing enough’ and ‘not getting things done’. There is a similar theme developing around the Federal Government if the Abbott Government fails to implement its economic reform agenda. The Abbott Government must do everything in its power to avoid this fate otherwise it also runs the risk of losing office after only one term in Government.

“While the Abbott Government still has two years to achieve positive results Tony Abbott’s team has so far struggled to convince the cross-bench Senators to support their proposed reforms (tax increases) and make progress on their legislative agenda.

“Today Australia’s most important issue is unemployment and under-employment. The Abbott Government must undertake significant IR reform which will quickly reduce Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment (Roy Morgan real October unemployment (1.09 million – 9.1%) and under-employment (1.12 million – 9.3%). In addition the Abbott Government (like the ALP Government) shows no interest in stopping the cash economy (ask any tradesman for a quote – you always get two alternatives – ask your Federal MP if you ‘don’t know’ why!).

Two years seems a long time in politics but time is running out for the Abbott Government to implement any meaningful economic reforms during its current term of Government.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5963 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of November 22/23 & 29/30, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,883 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

 

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - December 1, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0