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National lead is down after Andrew Little claims the Labour Leadership with a landslide of Union support over Cabinet’s preferred option Grant Robertson

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National 46% (down 3.5% in a month). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is higher with the Maori Party 2% (up 1%), Act NZ 1.5% (up 1%) although United Future is 0% (unchanged).

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National 46% (down 3.5% in a month). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is higher with the Maori Party 2% (up 1%), Act NZ 1.5% (up 1%) although United Future is 0% (unchanged).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is up to 27% (up 3%) following the election of Andrew Little as the new Labour Leader, but down for the Greens 12% (down 2.5%) while NZ First is up 0.5% to 7%. For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 2.5% (up 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would be easily re-elected.

Despite the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen significantly to 138pts (up 12pts) – the same level as immediately pre-election. There are 62.5% (up 6.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (down 5.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is now substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 98pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Labour (27%, up 3%) has enjoyed a small resurgence in support after finally selecting a new Leader, Andrew Little, following a protracted leadership election process. However, the election of Little came despite the Labour caucus in Parliament (56% Grant Robertson cf. 44% Andrew Little) and the Labour Party membership (55% Grand Robertson cf. 45% Andrew Little) both voting against Little in the final round of leadership voting.

“Little won the Labour Leadership by gaining the strong backing of the Union affiliates who supported Little (76%) cf. Robertson (24%). The overall results meant Little (50.5%) won a very narrow majority over Robertson (49.5%) and will have to work hard to unite the party and take the fight up to incumbent National Prime Minister John Key.

“It is worth remembering that former leader David Cunliffe was considered by many to be too left-wing because of his strong association with the unions to be elected as Prime Minister – and so it proved at the recent NZ Election. The strong support for Little from the union movement suggests Little will also have a hard time avoiding being considered the union candidate.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 871 electors from November 24 – December 7, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 4% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0