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Early Christmas present for Bill Shorten as ALP surges ahead of the L-NP

Finding No. 5981 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of December 6/7 & 13/14, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,007 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

ALP support surged to 57.5% (up 4%) now well ahead of the L-NP 42.5% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis this weekend. This is the ALP’s biggest lead since early June 2014. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,007 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the ALP rose to 41% (up 3.5%) well ahead of the L-NP 35% (down 4%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 11.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 10.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Tasmania (3.5%), followed by Queensland (3%), Victoria (2%), South Australia (2%), New South Wales (1%) and Western Australia (1%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is far higher for the ALP amongst women despite a fall: ALP (59.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (40.5%, down 2.5%). However, support is now higher amongst men for the ALP (56.5%, up 6.5%) compared to the L-NP (43.5%, down 6.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Victoria: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%; Tasmania: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; New South Wales: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%; Queensland: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, Western Australia: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and South Australia:  ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down to 93pts (down 5%) this week. Now 45% (up 2.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 38% (down 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43.5%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 57.5% (up 4%) has surged to its largest lead over the L-NP 42.5% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis since early June following widespread media coverage of Liberal Party infighting and Treasurer Joe Hockey’s Budget ‘blow-out’ which Hockey today announced was over $40 billion for this year (2014/15).

“Unemployment is Australia’s major issue – particularly among young people and those people made redundant due to Australia’s deteriorating manufacturing and mining industries. While the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has remained fairly resilient it has declined over 4pts in the last month to 110.4. Of greater concern is the latest Roy Morgan November employment estimates which shows a rise in part-time workers with the full-time workforce stagnant – Australia’s unemployment is now at 10.0% (1.26 million) with a further 9.7% (1.23 million) under-employed – almost 2.5 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“If the true state of Australia’s employment market were considered by policy makers – including the Reserve Bank, then ‘real action’ to deal with Australia’s deteriorating economy would be taken. In the New Year the RBA should immediately drop interest rates by 1% – something we have been calling for at Roy Morgan for over two years. However, the artificially low ABS unemployment estimates (6.3% in November) means the RBA does nothing month-after-month (it is now more than 16 months since the RBA cut interest rates) and leaves Australian interest rates (2.50%) amongst the highest in the developed world.

“Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s team has so far struggled to make real progress on any major economic reforms so little has been done to implement pro-growth policies. Employers will only employ more people if the Abbott Government cuts ‘red tape’, and reverses many of the ‘pro-union’ industrial relations laws. Today the over-regulated employment market means the large Australian cash economy is the only area of Australian ‘business’ which is ‘booming’!”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5981 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of December 6/7 & 13/14, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,007 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

 

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - December 15, 2014

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0