New Zealand real unemployment virtually unchanged at 7.2% following John Key’s re-election to third term in September

New Zealand unemployment was 7.2% (up 0.1% since the September Quarter 2014). Of the 2,719,000 in the NZ workforce an estimated 197,000 (up 7,000) were unemployed and looking for work.

A further 6.3% (down 4.0%) of the workforce* were under-employed – the lowest for nearly a decade since the April – June Quarter of 2006 (also 6.3%). These people are working part-time but looking for more work – 171,000 (down 106,000) New Zealanders.

In total 13.5% (down 3.9%) of the workforce 368,000 (down 99,000) New Zealanders were either unemployed or under-employed.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 7.2% is now 1.8% above the 5.4% currently quoted by Statistics New Zealand for the September Quarter 2014.

Compared to a year ago there are 131,000 more New Zealanders now employed, and unemployment is lower (7.2%) – now 1.3% less than the December Quarter 2013 (8.5%).

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says:

“The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand December Quarter 2014 employment figures show New Zealand unemployment virtually unchanged at 7.2% (up 0.1%) with a further 6.3% (down 4.0%) under-employed. This is a significant fall in under-employment to the lowest level for nearly a decade, since the April-June Quarter 2006 (when under-employment was also 6.3%). This is a good sign for Prime Minister John Key as he begins his third term as New Zealand Prime Minister.

“When Key began his second-term in office in November 2011 Roy Morgan New Zealand unemployment was at 9.4%, nearly a full 1% higher than now while the performance of the New Zealand economy with the booming New Zealand dairy industry providing a strong boost has seen unemployment fall to 197,000 – down from 245,000 three years ago. In addition, under-employment has fallen to 171,000, down a substantial 77,000 since the November Quarter 2008. Unemployment in New Zealand is significantly lower than across the Tasman in Australia – currently at 10.9% in December 2014.”

This Roy Morgan survey on New Zealand’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering October – December 2014 and in total 3,918 New Zealanders aged 14 and over were interviewed.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.

For further information:

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying a New Zealand-wide cross section by telephone. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of quarterly unemployment estimates in New Zealand. The Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.

Households selected for the Statistics New Zealand Labour Survey are interviewed each quarter for up to two years (eight interviews), with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each quarter. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

Statistics New Zealand classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they had actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week and were available for work or had a new job to start within the next four weeks.

Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted. For these reasons the Statistics New Zealand Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

There is a similar divergence caused in Australia’s ABS Unemployment estimates and the Roy Morgan Australian Unemployment estimates. Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate are clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published. 

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012.
http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Data Tables

• Roy Morgan New Zealand Employment Estimates (2001 - 2015)
  
  
• Roy Morgan New Zealand v Statistics New Zealand Employment Estimates (2001 - 2015)
  
  
• Statistics New Zealand Employment Estimates (2001 - 2015)

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Unemployment Figures in Australia.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.