Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,118 face-to-face interviews.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4% to 111.7 in the week ending January 4. The last two surveyed weeks showed a 3.2% fall over the first half of December and the rise this week leaves confidence still below November levels.
More broadly, a sizable gap remains between perceptions of current conditions and confidence in the outlook (Figure 3). Weakness in expectations of economic conditions in one year and five years’ time have been particularly persistent and we expect this reflects a prolonged period of weak job security.
‘Household finances compared to a year ago’, the sub-index most correlated with household spending, is the only sub-index to be considerably above its long-run average. However, the historic relationship between this variable and household spending has been weaker in recent years. A possible explanation is that concerns about the economic outlook are having a greater influence on spending decisions than in the past.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has increased a little since our last survey in mid-December but remains lower than levels seen in November. The lack of a more solid rebound in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is disappointing given anecdotes of decent retail spending over the Christmas period and a significant drop in the price of petrol. We still expect lower fuel prices to filter through to confidence in coming weeks. Ultimately, confidence is unlikely to rise without a stabilisation in the unemployment rate. On this, next week’s ANZ Job Ads and the official employment report will be important.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.