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Australian employment at record high in December driven by a record high level of part-time employment

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 412,100 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – December 2014 and includes 3,099 face-to-face interviews in December 2014.

In December 2014 Roy Morgan Unemployment is 10.9%:

  • 12,901,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 266,000 since December 2013 a new record high);
  • 11,499,000 Australians are employed (up 275,000 since December 2013 and a new record high);
  • 7,565,000 Australians are employed full-time (up 170,000 since December 2013);
  • 3,934,000 Australians are employed part-time (up 105,000 since December 2013 and a new record high);
  • 1,402,000 Australians are looking for work (10.9% of the workforce, down 9,000 since December 2013);
  • 1,246,000 Australians are under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours – 9.7%, up 154,000 since December 2013).
  • 2,648,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed – a new record high (20.6% of the workforce, up 145,000 since December 2013);
  • After this month’s rise the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.9% is now a substantial 4.6% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for November 2014 (6.3%).

 

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

 

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2013

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jul–Sep 2013

2,314

18.5

1,272

10.2

618

654

1,042

8.3

Oct–Dec 2013

2,439

19.5

1,337

10.7

734

603

1,102

8.8

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Apr-Jun 2014

2,360

18.9

1,273

10.2

638

635

1,087

8.7

Jul-Sep 2014

2,237

18.2

1,179

9.6

594

585

1,058

8.6

Oct-Dec 2014

2,449

19.6

1,251

10.0

559

692

1,198

9.6

Months

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 2013

2,404

19.3

1,268

10.2

700

568

1,136

9.1

December 2013

2,503

19.8

1,411

11.2

777

634

1,092

8.6

January 2014

2,545

20.0

1,440

11.3

851

589

1,105

8.7

February 2014

2,641

20.8

1,561

12.3

866

695

1,080

8.5

March 2014

2,410

19.1

1,465

11.6

814

651

945

7.5

April 2014

2,387

18.9

1,308

10.4

628

680

1,079

8.5

April 2014**

2,374

19.0

1,299

10.4

629

670

1,074

8.6

May 2014

2,179

17.8

1,186

9.7

603

583

993

8.1

June 2014

2,514

20.1

1,326

10.6

684

642

1,188

9.5

July 2014

2,344

18.9

1,265

10.2

654

611

1,079

8.7

August 2014

2,144

17.6

1,064

8.7

516

548

1,080

8.8

September 2014

2,223

18.2

1,208

9.9

613

595

1,015

8.3

October 2014

2,207

18.4

1,090

9.1

461

629

1,117

9.3

November 2014

2,491

19.7

1,260

10.0

564

696

1,231

9.7

December 2014

2,648

20.6

1,402

10.9

653

749

1,246

9.7

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 and going forward are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.

Gary Morgan says:

“Australia’s workforce has increased to a record high 12,901,000 (up 244,000 from November 2014). Driving this month’s increase in the workforce was a strong increase in part-time employment to a record high 3,934,000 (up 91,000) with modest growth in full-time employment to 7,565,000 (up 11,000).

“The increase in part-time employment has led to an increase in Australian under-employment to a record high of 1.246 million (up 15,000) – the third straight monthly increase in under-employment (9.7%). An additional 1.402 million Australians (10.9%) are now unemployed (up 142,000) – although this figure is high it is down 9,000 on a year ago in December 2013. This is a total of 2.648 million Australians (up 145,000) either unemployed or under-employed – another record high.

“The run-up to Christmas is traditionally a time in which young people that’ve finished up at school or University either look for full-time work or seek part-time employment over the Summer months. Both the Australian workforce and total Australian employment have increased in four out of the last six years in December since the Global Financial Crisis (2008-09).

“The overall picture of the Australian labour market shows an economy with a large amount of under-utilised labour – now 2.648 million Australians (20.6%) are either unemployed or under-employed. It is now more than three years that more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work (37 months) and the 31st straight month more than 1 million Australians have been unemployed – both these figures demonstrate that the Abbott Government must look seriously at industrial relations reform – starting with the abolition of weekend and public holiday penalty rates as recently called for by the Restaurant and Catering Association.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 412,100 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – December 2014 and includes 3,099 face-to-face interviews in December 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)


Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - December 2014 - 10.9%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - December Quarter 2014 - 10.0%

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - December 2014 - 10.9%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.