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Coalition gains in first survey of 2015 after Cabinet reshuffle

Finding No. 6012 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of January 3/4 & 10/11, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,622 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

L-NP support rose to 45.5% (up 3%) still well behind the ALP 54.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis this weekend.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would still win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,622 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the ALP fell to 38.5% (down 2.5%) level with the L-NP 38.5% (up 3.5%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 9.5% (down 2%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 11.5%.

Support for PUP is highest in Queensland (5%) and Tasmania (4%), followed by Victoria (2%), Western Australia (2%), New South Wales (1%) and South Australia (1%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is higher for the ALP amongst women despite a fall: ALP (56%, down 3.5%) cf. L-NP (44%, up 3.5%).  Support is also higher amongst men for the ALP (53%, down 3.5%) compared to the L-NP (47%, up 3.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 62.5% cf. L-NP 37.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except South Australia. Tasmania: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%; New South Wales: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%; Queensland: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, Western Australia: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% while the L-NP leads in South Australia:  L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 93pts this week. Now 44% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 37% (down 1%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Coalition has increased support over the Christmas/ New Year Holiday period and is now at 45.5% (up 3%), but still well behind the ALP 54.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. The party in office usually gains support early in the New Year and the Coalition’s improvement reverses the large surge to the Opposition seen in December when Treasurer Joe Hockey was forced to reveal an unexpected increase to the size of Australia’s Federal Budget deficit.

“Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced a Cabinet reshuffle just before Christmas which involved moving Immigration Minister Scott Morrison – widely seen as being the Government’s most effective performer during the Coalition’s first year in office – being appointed as the Minister for Social Services which includes welfare, child care and the Abbott Government’s contentious paid parental leave scheme. An important part of Morrison’s remit during the remainder of the Parliamentary term is to reform the pensions system and the changes to unemployment benefits that are designed to get unemployed Australians back in work.

“Unemployment is Australia’s major issue – particularly among young people and those people made redundant due to Australia’s deteriorating manufacturing and mining industries. The latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates shows a rise in part-time workers with the full-time workforce stagnant – Australia’s unemployment is now at 10.9% (1.40 million) with a further 9.7% (1.25 million) under-employed – almost 2.65 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“If the true state of Australia’s employment market were considered by policy makers – including the Reserve Bank, then ‘real action’ to deal with Australia’s deteriorating economy would be taken. The RBA should immediately drop interest rates by 1% – something we have been calling for at Roy Morgan for over two years. However, the artificially low ABS unemployment estimates (6.3% in November) means the RBA does nothing month-after-month (it is now more than 16 months since the RBA cut interest rates) and leaves Australian interest rates (2.50%) amongst the highest in the developed world.

“Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s team has so far struggled to make real progress on any major economic reforms so little has been done to implement pro-growth policies. Employers will only employ more people if the Abbott Government cuts ‘red tape’, and reverses many of the ‘pro-union’ industrial relations laws. Today the over-regulated employment market means the large Australian cash economy is the only area of Australian ‘business’ which is ‘booming’!”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6012 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of January 3/4 & 10/11, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,622 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - January 12, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0