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Australian electors prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Leader ahead of Julie Bishop; Bishop now ahead of Abbott for the first time. However, Tony Abbott still preferred by L-NP voters.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of January 12-13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.

A telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights this week (January 12-13, 2015) finds:

  • Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull is preferred as Liberal Leader by 36% of electors (down 2% since September 30-October 2, 2014) but still well ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (26%, up 10%) and Prime Minister Tony Abbott (14%, down 5%). Bishop is now ahead of Abbott for the first time as preferred Liberal Leader. No other candidate has more than 4% support.
  • However, L-NP voters just narrowly prefer Prime Minister Tony Abbott (30%, down 11%) as Liberal Party Leader ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop (28%, up 11%) and Malcolm Turnbull (26%, up 2%). Treasurer Joe Hockey has lost significant support and is now at only 4% (down 4%).
  • Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is preferred by only 25% (up 4%) of electors as ALP Leader ahead of 18% (unchanged) who prefer Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek and 10% (down 5%) who prefer Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese and 10% (unchanged) that prefer former Treasurer Wayne Swan.
  • Amongst ALP supporters Bill Shorten (35%, up 8%) is increasingly favoured over Tanya Plibersek (21%, up 1%), Wayne Swan (12%, up 3%) and Anthony Albanese (8%, down 7%).
  • If Mr Abbott were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, it would appear to be a two-horse race between Malcolm Turnbull (38%, down 4%) and a surging Julie Bishop (32%, up 9%).
  • If Opposition Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek (21%, unchanged) is narrowly preferred as ALP Leader ahead of former Treasurer Wayne Swan (16%, up 2%) and Anthony Albanese (14%, down 5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull (36%, down 2%) is once again the preferred Liberal Leader although Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (26%, up 10%) is now ahead of Prime Minister Tony Abbott (14%, down 5%) for the first time. Bishop’s support has surged over the past year following her strong performance as Foreign Minister dealing with the crash of MH17 in Eastern Ukraine and also the increasing tension surrounding the Islamic State (ISIS) in the Middle East.

“However, L-NP supporters still narrowly favour Abbott (30%, down 11%) over both Bishop (28%, up 11%) and Turnbull (26%, up 2%). It appears that Bishop has gained support from L-NP voters who previously supported Abbott whereas Turnbull is virtually unchanged from three months ago.

“Electors are more confused about who they want leading the ALP with no candidate attracting more than a quarter of the electorate’s support – although current Labor Leader Bill Shorten (25%, up 4%) has slightly consolidated his lead over Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek (18%, unchanged) and is now significantly in front of both Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (10%, down 5%) and former Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan (10%, unchanged).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of January 12-13, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 523 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Tony Abbott as
Oppn. Leader

Tony Abbott
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

51

44

38

36

26

43

58

22

20

J. Bishop

7

7

16

26

28

23

28

28

29

Abbott

16

15

19

14

30

5

-

-

3

Hockey

14

11

6

4

4

6

-

12

5

Joyce

n/a

5

3

4

4

4

1

11

6

Morrison

n/a

2

2

2

3

1

-

-

3

Pyne

1

1

1

2

1

3

2

-

4

Robb

1

2

*

*

-

-

-

-

3

Someone else

1

1

1

1

-

1

-

-

3

Can’t say

9

12

14

11

4

14

11

27

24

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.

 

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce & Scott Morrison?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

Tony Abbott as Oppn.  Leader

Tony Abbott
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

57

48

42

38

33

43

58

22

20

J. Bishop

11

9

23

32

40

26

28

28

29

Hockey

19

15

9

6

7

6

-

12

5

Joyce

n/a

6

4

4

5

4

1

11

6

Morrison

n/a

3

3

3

6

1

-

-

3

Pyne

2

1

2

3

2

3

2

-

4

Robb

2

2

*

*

-

1

-

-

3

Someone else

1

1

1

1

-

1

-

-

3

Can’t say

8

15

16

13

7

15

11

27

27

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

PM Rudd

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

9

22

21

25

24

35

7

7

10

Plibersek

n/a

16

18

18

10

21

40

-

8

Albanese

n/a

15

15

10

15

8

11

11

4

Swan

5

9

10

10

10

12

7

11

12

Bowen

4

5

6

6

7

4

2

9

13

Macklin

3

5

4

5

4

4

11

-

8

Burke

n/a

3

3

5

8

3

2

12

6

Rudd

42

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Gillard

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Smith

9

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Combet

4

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

2

2

2

2

1

2

2

-

6

Can’t say

13

23

21

19

21

11

18

50

33

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

PM Rudd

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 16/17,
2013

June 3-5,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Palmer

Ind/

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

15

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Plibersek

n/a

21

21

21

11

29

42

-

8

Swan

14

13

14

16

16

18

8

11

12

Albanese

n/a

19

19

14

19

13

11

11

4

Bowen

6

7

8

9

9

8

2

16

13

Macklin

4

7

5

7

6

7

11

-

11

Burke

n/a

5

3

7

10

5

4

12

6

Gillard

16

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Smith

13

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Combet

7

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

-

6

Can’t say

22

26

28

24

27

18

20

50

40

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.