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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: Lower Petrol Prices Providing Little Fuel to Confidence

Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,086 face-to-face interviews.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4% to 113.6 in the week ending 18 January 2015. This follows a cumulative rise of 1.6% over the previous two surveys and brings the level of confidence back up around its long-run average. However, January data should be treated with some caution given there is often a temporary seasonal uplift in confidence over January (confidence is not seasonally adjusted).

Lower petrol prices haven’t delivered as big of a bounce to confidence as we would have expected. Indeed, ‘household finances compared to a year ago’, the subindex most correlated to household consumption, fell to a four-month low last week. This suggests that it’s unclear whether we will get a meaningful lift in consumption in the near-term.

ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:

“An important question for the outlook is whether households will spend or save the boost to real household income from lower petrol prices. We expect that ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence will be key to watch for a timely signal on households’ willingness to spend. Interestingly, in the US, consumer confidence has lifted sharply as petrol prices have fallen, while Australian consumer confidence has broadly moved sideways. While there may be a longer lag before lower petrol prices start to boost Australian consumer confidence, thus far the response from both confidence and retail anecdotes suggest that households remain cautious.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - January 20, 2015 - 113.6

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - January 20, 2015 - 113.6

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - January 20, 2015 - 113.6

Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.