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Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past few days January 16-18, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,489 Australian electors including 1,114 New South Wales electors, 1,050 Victorian electors, 1,179 Queensland electors, 432 Western Australian electors, 431 South Australian electors and 283 Tasmanian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over the last few days (January 16-18, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 4,489 Australian electors shows the Queensland Election too close to call and the L-NP set for victory in NSW. Queensland: LNP 50.5% (unchanged) cf. ALP 49.5% (unchanged) and in NSW: L-NP 54% (down 1%) cf. ALP 46% (up 1%). Queensland’s State Election is on Saturday January 31, and the NSW State Election is scheduled for March 28, 2015.

QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP#: LNP 50.5% (unchanged since November 21-24, 2014) cf. ALP 49.5% (unchanged).

Primary vote: LNP 39.5% (up 0.5%), ALP 37% (up 0.5%), Greens 10% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 4% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 6% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP):
Ms. Palaszczuk 51.5% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Newman 48.5% (up 1%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 3% (down 2%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 12.7% (up 1.8% since October-November 2014) and under-employment is 10.3% (up 1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 23% (up 2.8%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

Queensland State Election is being held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win the Election easily

2PP: L-NP 54% (down 1% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. ALP 46% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 44.5% (up 0.5%); ALP 35% (up 2.5%), Greens 11% (down 1.5%), Christian Democrats 1.5% (down 1%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 0.5% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 69% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Foley 31% (up 1%); Lead to Mr. Baird: 38% (down 2%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10.4% (up 1.1% since October-November 2014) and under-employment is 10.7% (up 1.5%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 21.1% (up 2.6%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

New South Wales State Election is scheduled for March 28, 2015.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 59% (up 7% since the 2014 Victorian State Election) cf. L-NP 41% (down 7%).

Primary vote: L-NP 35% (down 7%); ALP 45% (up 6.9%), Greens 11.5% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (up 0.4%), Country Alliance 1% (down 0.3%) and Independents/ Others 6% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 66.5% (up 18% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. Mr. Guy 33.5% (down 18%); Lead to Mr. Andrews: 33% (up 36%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 10.3% (up 1.6% since October & November 2014) and under-employment is 8.7% (down 1.2%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 19% (up 0.4%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

Victorian State Election was held on Saturday November 29, 2014.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP (50.5%, up 2% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 2%).

Primary vote: Liberal 35.5% (up 0.5%), WA Nationals 6.5% (down 0.5%), ALP 35.5% (up 5%), Greens 13% (down 2.5%), Christians 1.5% (down 1.5%), Palmer United Party 2% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 6% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 61% (up 4%) cf. Mr. Barnett 39% (down 4%); Lead to Mr. McGowan: 22% (up 8%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 7.8% (down 1.4% since September-November, 2014) and under-employment is 6.7% (down 0.4%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 14.5% (down 1.8%). (October - December 2014).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: ALP would win close Election

2PP: ALP 52% (up 0.5% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. L-NP 48% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 39.5% (up 1%), ALP 38% (up 3%), Greens 10.5% (down 2.5%), Family First 3.5% (down 1%), Palmer United Party 2% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 58% (up 3.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 42% (down 3.5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 16% (up 7%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 9.2% (down 0.5% since September-November 2014) and under-employment is 9.8% (up 0.6%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 19% (up 0.1%).  (October - December 2014).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election easily

2PP: ALP 55.5% (up 0.5% since November 21-24, 2014) cf. Liberals 44.5% (down 0.5%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: ALP 39.5% (down 2%), Liberals 38.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 17% (up 4%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 4% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 58.5% (down 1.5%); Mr. Green 41.5% (up 1.5%); Lead to Mr. Hodgman 17% (down 3%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 10.7% (down 0.9% since September-November 2014) and under-employment is 15.8% (up 0.9%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 26.5% (unchanged). (Interviewed October - December 2014).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


Gary Morgan says:

“This special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted over the last few days shows next week’s Queensland State Election too close to call with the LNP (50.5%) holding a narrow lead over the ALP (49.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. Opposition Leader Anastacia Palasczuk (51.5%) continues to hold a narrow lead as ‘Better Premier’ over Campbell Newman (48.5%) – and it remains possible the LNP could win the State Election although the Premier might lose his hotly contested seat of Ashgrove in suburban Brisbane.

“Further south in New South Wales the L-NP (54%) cf. ALP (46%) hold a strong lead on a two-party preferred basis and are heavily favoured to win re-election in late March. Premier Mike Baird (69%) is clearly preferred to new Opposition Leader Luke Foley (31%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“Even further south in Victoria the new ALP Government of Daniel Andrews is enjoying a clear honeymoon period with the ALP (59%, up 7%) now well ahead of the L-NP (41%, down 7%) on a two-party preferred basis. New Premier Daniel Andrews (66.5%, up 18% since pre-Victorian Election) is also clearly preferred to new Opposition Leader Matthew Guy (33.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“The ALP leads in the remaining States by varying degrees: A narrow lead in both Western Australia: ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%) and South Australia: ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) and a clear lead in Tasmania: ALP (55.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%).”

 

For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales/ Victoria/ Queensland/ Western Australia/ South Australia/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted over the past few days January 16-18, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,489 Australian electors including 1,114 New South Wales electors, 1,050 Victorian electors, 1,179 Queensland electors, 432 Western Australian electors, 431 South Australian electors and 283 Tasmanian electors.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results. The latest Newspoll for Queensland shows ‘Others’ polling 17% with no ‘breakdown’ of the figure.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the Queensland Electoral Commission for the Queensland Election the estimate for the 2012 Queensland Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2012 Queensland Election as LNP (63.1%) cf. ALP (36.9%).


For further information:

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