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Only the Morgan Poll predicted the Queensland Election as ‘too close to call’ as Labor looks set to return to office in Queensland after only one term out

By Gary Morgan, Michele Levine & Julian McCrann

The final SMS Queensland State Morgan Poll conducted in mid-January showed the L-NP (50.5%) with a slight two-party preferred advantage over the ALP (49.5%) – the closest result of all major polls conducted for yesterday’s Queensland State Election.

All three of the Galaxy (Courier-Mail), Newspoll (The Australian) and ReachTEL (7News) polls conducted in the last week predicted a clear LNP majority: LNP (52%) cf. ALP (48%).

Looking closely at the Queensland Election results shows that all four polls under-estimated the ALP vote (38.1%) in yesterday’s election. Roy Morgan Research, Galaxy and Newspoll all predicted an ALP primary vote of 37% and ReachTEL predicted a slightly higher ALP primary vote of 37.2%.

Galaxy and Newspoll were closest to correctly predicting the LNP vote of 41.1% with both polls predicting an LNP vote of 41% in the final Queensland polls. ReachTEL was the only pollster to over-estimate the LNP vote (a predicted 41.5%) while the Morgan Poll underestimated the LNP vote by 1.6% with a predicted LNP vote of 39.5%.

The Morgan Poll predicted a Greens vote of 10%, an overestimate of the Greens vote (8.3%) while the three other pollsters all underestimated the Greens vote: Galaxy (8%) was clearly the closest ahead of ReachTEL (7.5%) while Newspoll significantly under-estimated the Greens vote (6%) – this was the biggest error by any pollster on the three largest parties.

Gary Morgan says:

“We have now been conducting SMS State Morgan Polls since September last year based on significant monthly samples of over 4,000 electors. The SMS State Morgan Polls have correctly predicted two close elections in Victoria (A three seat majority to the ALP) and now Queensland (potentially a hung Parliament as counting continues).

 “The Coalition defeats in the Queensland and Victorian Elections must be a huge concern for the Abbott Government. Voters are looking for a Government that displays economic competency and tackles Australia’s largest issue ‘honestly’unemployment and under-employment. The Abbott Government has refused to provide real policy solutions to Australia’s endemic unemployment and under-employment. The latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates shows 1.4 million Australians are unemployed (10.9%) and a further 1.2 million Australians are under-employed (9.7%) – a total of 2.6 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“In 2003 I sent to the Australian Financial Review – ‘It’s time for a realistic measure of Unemployment in Australia’ (August 21, 2003) and copied Tony Abbott, then Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations. I said in that letter, ‘Unfortunately, no Government will change the way unemployment is measured if the "number” is higher. But until the Government is honest with the electorate, the problem of joblessness will not receive the attention that it deserves.’ – Abbott ignored my advice more than 11 years ago and looks set to ignore this advice once again. the same ‘message’ was given by Hugh Morgan ‘Unlocking jobs is key to sustaining growth in an article published on August 16/17, 2003 in the Weekend AFR – nothing’s changed!”

As is NewsCorp’s practice, Newspoll ignored the Palmer United Party but included Katter’s Australian Party. This is despite the Palmer United Party significantly outperforming Katter’s Australian Party in first preference votes at the Queensland Election – which was correctly predicted by all other pollsters.

QUEENSLAND VOTING INTENTION – JANUARY 31, 2015

 

Queensland

Election

Jan 31, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

Roy Morgan Research

Galaxy (Courier-Mail)

Newspoll (Australian)

ReachTEL
(7 News)

 

Jan 16-18

Jan 27-29

Jan 27-29

Jan 29

Actual Result*

%

error

%

error

%

error

%

error

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample

                    

(1,179)

(800)

(1,682)

(1,560)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED#

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP

50

49.5

-0.5

48

-2.0

48

-2.0

48

-2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

LNP

50

50.5

+0.5

52

+2.0

52

+2.0

52

+2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average error on
Two-Party Preferred

0.5

2.0

2.0

 

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP

38.1

37

-1.1

37

-1.1

37

-1.1

37.2

-0.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

LNP

41.1

39.5

-1.6

41

-0.1

41

-0.1

41.5

+0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greens

8.3

10

+1.7

8

-0.3

6

-2.3

7.5

-0.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

Palmer (PUP)

4.9

4

-0.9

4

-0.9

n/a

n/a

4.4

-0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Katter (KAP)

1.8

3.5**

+1.7

2

+0.2

2

+0.2

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind./ Other
(Roy Morgan
& Galaxy)

5.8

6

+0.2

8

+2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind./ PUP/Other
(Newspoll)

10.7

 

 

14

+3.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind./ KAP/Other
(ReachTEL)

7.6

 

 

 

9.3

+1.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average error on
Primary Vote

1.2

0.8

1.4

0.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 






























*Based on results at the Queensland Electoral commission website at 4pm Sunday February 1, 2015. (www.ecq.qld.gov.au).

#Estimated Two-Party Preferred result in Queensland based on latest results from the ECQ website.

**Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) only contested 11 out of 89 seats at this election which was not accounted for in the final Morgan Poll. Obviously if the party had contested in all seats their KAP vote would have been at least 3.5%.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093