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ALP increases lead before Abbott’s ‘Pyrrhic victory’ in today’s L-NP leadership vote; Government Confidence drops to 89

Finding No. 6061– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,939 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

ALP support rose to 57.5% (up 1%) well ahead of the L-NP 42.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis.  If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends of January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,939 Australian electors aged 18+.

Primary support for the ALP rose to 41.5% (up 2% - the highest since June 2014) well ahead of the
L-NP 35.5% (down 2%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 12% (unchanged), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (down 1%) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 9%.

Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (4.5%) with little support in all other states.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 89pts (down 5pts) this week. Now 45.5% (up 2%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 34.5% (down 3%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – the lowest number of Australians saying this since mid-June 2013 just before Julia Gillard was removed as Prime Minister and replaced by Kevin Rudd.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support is still higher for the ALP amongst women:  ALP 59% (down 0.5%) cf. L-NP 41% (up 0.5%). Support amongst men has strengthened for the ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 71% cf. L-NP 29%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 66.5% cf. L-NP 33.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%; 50-64yr olds ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%.

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Victoria: ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%; Tasmania: ALP 61.5% cf.  L-NP 38.5%; South Australia: ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%; New South Wales: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%; Queensland: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Western Australia:  ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.  

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll* shows the ALP (57%) cf. L-NP (43%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP 57.5% (up 1%) has strengthened its lead over the L-NP 42.5% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis over the weekend as Liberal Party MPs prepared to vote on whether to have a fresh leadership contest earlier today. As it turned out, the motion to have a leadership spill in the Liberal Party was defeated 61-39. A majority of only 10 of the full Liberal caucus of 102 members (two votes were not recorded in today’s ballot).

“In early 2012, former Prime Minister Julia Gillard easily defeated her Prime Ministerial predecessor Kevin Rudd in a Labor Party Leadership ballot by 71 votes to 31 – a far more comprehensive victory for Gillard. However, as history shows, Rudd would take the top job back off Gillard just over a year later winning the caucus vote 57 cf. 45. Abbott’s precarious victory today has all the hallmarks of a ‘Pyrrhic victory’ given the precedents we have all seen.

“The next test for Prime Minister Tony Abbott is the NSW State Election – due in just over six weeks. The recent NSW State Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (54%) cf. ALP (46%) the only State in which the L-NP leads in State voting intention on a two-party preferred basis. Unlike the two recent State Elections in Queensland & Victoria, Abbott will be forced to campaign in NSW as he lives there! A close result, or a loss, would throw the Liberal Party back into ‘crisis mode’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6061– This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends, January 31/ February 1 & 7/8, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,939 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.

For further information:

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Data Tables


Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - February 9, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0