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Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW next month. Palaszczuk’s Queensland Election victory reveals fresh ‘gender split’ in Queensland

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted earlier this week on February 14-16, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,944 Australian electors including 1,203 New South Wales electors, 1,152 Victorian electors, 1,179 Queensland electors, 471 Western Australian electors, 450 South Australian electors and 275 Tasmanian electors.

A special SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted over this week (February 13-16, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 4,730 Australian electors shows the L-NP set for victory in next month’s NSW State Election. NSW: L-NP 55.5% (up 1.5% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 1.5%). The NSW Election is scheduled for Saturday March 28, 2015.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win the Election easily

2PP: L-NP 55.5% (up 1.5% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 45% (up 0.5%), ALP 34% (down 1%), Greens 9.5% (down 1.5%), Christian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (up 1%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 6% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 66.5% (down 2.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 33.5% (up 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 33% (down 5%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10.4% (unchanged since November–December 2014) and under-employment is 9.1% (down 1.6%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 19.5% (down 1.6%). (Interviewed in December 2014 & January 2015).

New South Wales State Election is scheduled for next month on March 28, 2015.


QUEENSLAND: Election in January resulted in a ‘Hung’ Parliament

2PP#: LNP 51.5% (up 2.5% since the State election on January 31, 2015) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 2.5%). Female electors: ALP (53%) cf. LNP (47%). Male electors: LNP (56%) cf. ALP (44%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 44% (up 2.7%), ALP 37.5% (unchanged), Greens 8% (down 0.4%), Palmer United Party 3% (down 2.1%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (up 0.6%), Family First 1% (down 0.2%), Independents/ Others 4% (down 0.6%). Female electors: ALP (42%), LNP (40%), Greens (9%), Palmer United Party (2%), Katter’s Australian Party (2%), Family First (1%), Independents/ Others (4%). Male electors: LNP (48%), ALP (32.5%), Greens (7%), Palmer United Party (4%), Katter’s Australian Party (4%), Family First (1%), Independents/ Others (3.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 52.5% (up 1% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. Mr. Springborg 47.5% (down 1%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 5% (up 2%). Females: Ms. Palaszczuk (58%, unchanged) cg. Mr. Springborg (42%, unchanged). Males: Mr. Springborg (53%, down 2.5%) cf. Ms. Palaszczuk (47%, up 2.5%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 11.8% (down 0.9% since November–December 2014) and under-employment is 9.0% (down 1.3%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 20.8% (down 2.2%). (Interviewed in December 2014 & January 2015).

Queensland State Election was held on Saturday January 31, 2015.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election easily

2PP: ALP 54.5% (down 4.5% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. L-NP 45.5% (up 4.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 39.5% (up 4.5%); ALP 41.5% (down 3.5%), Greens 11.5% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 1%), Country Alliance 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal): Mr. Andrews 62.5% (down 4%) cf. Mr. Guy 37.5% (up 4%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 25% (down 8%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 10.0% (down 0.3% since November–December 2014) and under-employment is 9.3% (up 0.6%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 19.3% (up 0.3%). (Interviewed in December 2014 & January 2015).

Victorian State Election was held on Saturday November 29, 2014.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP (50%, up 0.5% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. ALP 50% (down 0.5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 36% (up 0.5%), WA Nationals 7% (up 0.5%), ALP 35% (down 0.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 1.5%), Christians 1.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP): Mr. McGowan 60.5% (down 0.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 39.5% (up 0.5%); Lead to Mr McGowan 21% (down 1%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 8.4% (up 0.6% since October–December, 2014) and under-employment is 7% (up 0.3%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 15.4% (up 0.9%). (Interviewed in November 2014 – January 2015).

Western Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: ALP would win Election

2PP: ALP 53% (up 1% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. L-NP 47% (down 1%).

Primary vote: ALP 38% (unchanged), L-NP 38% (down 1.5%), Greens 11.5% (up 1%), Family First 4% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 7% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steve Marshall (Liberal): Mr. Weatherill 54.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 45.5% (up 3.5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 9% (down 7%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 10.7% (up 1.5% since October–December, 2014) and under-employment is 9.4% (down 0.4%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 20.1% (up 1.1%). (Interviewed in November 2014 – January 2015).

South Australia State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election easily

2PP: ALP 54.5% (down 1% since January 16-18, 2015) cf. Liberals 45.5% (up 1%) – Estimate. Two-Party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: ALP 39.5% (unchanged), Liberals 39% (up 0.5%), Greens 14% (down 3%), Palmer United Party 2.5% (up 1.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP): Mr. Hodgman 58.5% (unchanged); Mr. Green 41.5% (unchanged); Lead to Mr Hodgman 17% (unchanged).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 9.5% (down 1.2% since October – December, 2014) and under-employment is 13.2% (down 2.6%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 22.7% (down 3.8%). (Interviewed in November 2014 - January 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan Research, says:

“This special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted earlier this week shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird is set to be easily re-elected at next month’s New South Wales State Election with the L-NP (55.5%, up 1.5% since mid-January) holding a strong two-party preferred lead over the ALP (44.5%, down 1.5%). New South Wales electors also clearly preferred Baird (66.5%, down 2.5%) as Premier over newly installed Labor Leader Luke Foley (33.5%, up 2.5%).

“Although today’s SMS State Morgan Poll shows a strong lead for Baird, it should be noted this is a swing of 8.7% to the ALP since the last New South Wales State Election after former Liberal Premier Barry O’Farrell led the Coalition to a record election victory in 2011 with a two-party preferred result of L-NP (64.2%) cf. ALP (35.8%).

“Today’s SMS State Morgan Poll also provides the first snapshot of Queensland under new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk with the defeated LNP rebounding from a shocking election defeat to hold a narrow two-party preferred lead: LNP 51.5% (up 2.5% since the Queensland Election) cf. ALP (48.5%, down 2.5%). Despite dropping behind on voting intention, Ms. Palaszczuk (52.5%) is still slightly preferred as ‘Better Premier’ over three-time Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg (47.5%).

“However looking closer at the results in Queensland shows a clear gender split has emerged with female electors leaning towards the new Government: ALP (53%) cf. LNP (47%) and also new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (58%) cf. Lawrence Springborg (42%) while male electors lean strongly in the other direction: LNP (56%) cf. ALP (44%) and also slightly prefer Mr. Springborg (53%) cf. Ms. Palaszczuk (47%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“Further south in Victoria it appears the honeymoon for the new ALP Government of Daniel Andrews is coming to an end, although the ALP (54.5%, down 4.5% since mid-January) still enjoys a clear lead over the L-NP (45.5%, up 4.5%). However, Premier Daniel Andrews (62.5%, down 4% since mid-January) is still clearly preferred to Liberal Leader Matthew Guy (37.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Western Australia neither major party can be split with the L-NP (50%, up 0.5% since mid-January) cf. ALP (50%, down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis while the ALP leads clearly on a two-party preferred basis in both South Australia ALP (53%, up 1% since mid-January) cf. L-NP (47%, down 1%) and Tasmania ALP (54.5%, down 1%) cf. Liberals (45.5%, up 1%).”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted earlier this week on February 14-16, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,944 Australian electors including 1,203 New South Wales electors, 1,152 Victorian electors, 1,179 Queensland electors, 471 Western Australian electors, 450 South Australian electors and 275 Tasmanian electors.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results.

#As there is no two-party preferred result released by the Queensland Electoral Commission for the Queensland Election the estimate for the 2015 Queensland Election is provided by ABC electoral analyst Antony Green showing the 2015 Queensland Election as ALP (51%) cf. L-NP (49%).


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093