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National support slips but Labour still well behind as New Zealand co-host the 2015 Cricket World Cup

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 891 electors from February 2-15, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National falling to 49% (down 3% since January 5-18, 2015). Support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners has also fallen with the Maori Party 1.0% (down 0.5%), Act NZ 0% (down 1%) and United Future still on 0% (unchanged).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is at 30% (up 4% - their highest level of support since July 2014) and also up for the Greens 12% (up 1%) while NZ First is 6% (unchanged). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win in a close election.

Coinciding with the decrease in support for the Government the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen significantly to 124pts (down 20pts). This is the lowest the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been since October 2013.

There are now 55% (down 12%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 8%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. However, NZ Government Confidence is still substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at 89pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Despite a loss of support in February Prime Minister John Key’s National (49%, down 3%) still enjoys a commanding lead over the opposition Labour Party (30%, up 4%) – the highest level of support for Labour since July 2014.

“Of concern for Key will be the large drop in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating – falling to 124 (down 24pts) with 55% (down 12%) of New Zealand electors saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right’ direction’ compared to 31% (up 8%) that say New Zealand is now ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – this is the lowest for this indicator for nearly 18 months since October 2013 (124).

“However, the good news for National is that New Zealand is co-hosting the Cricket World Cup during February and March with neighbours Australia, and New Zealand’s recent good form in One-Day Cricket has seen New Zealand surge to second favouritism to win the tournament. A good performance in the Cricket World Cup will mirror New Zealand’s effort when hosting the 2011 Rugby World Cup which New Zealand won after defeating France in the Final.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 891 electors from February 2-15, 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0