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Race tightens in NSW although Baird still favoured. NSW electors nominate Infrastructure investment, Privatisation/ Sale of Assets, Health & Hospitals, Political Leadership & Corruption, Education and Unemployment as Key Issues

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Premier Mike Baird and Opposition Leader Luke Foley. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier? This special telephone Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier and Important issues in New South Wales was conducted earlier this week on February 20-22, 2015 with a cross-section of 418 New South Wales electors.

A special telephone Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted this week (February 20-22, 2015) with a representative cross-section of 418 Australian electors shows the L-NP set for victory in next month’s NSW State Election – although the race has tightened. NSW: L-NP 52.5% (down 3% since February 14-16, 2015) cf. ALP 47.5% (up 3%). The NSW Election is scheduled for Saturday March 28, 2015.

NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win the Election

2PP: L-NP 52.5% (down 3% since February 14-16, 2015) cf. ALP 47.5% (up 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP 43% (down 2%), ALP 36% (up 2%), Greens 10.5% (up 1%), Christian Democrats 1.5% (down 1%), Family First 0.5% (down 1%), Palmer United Party 1% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 7.5% (up 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Without can’t say: Mr. Baird 69% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 31% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 38% (up 5%). With can’t say/ other: Mr. Baird (49.5%) cf. Mr. Foley (22%); Can’t say/ Other (28.5%).

Job Approval – ‘Handling of Job as Premier’: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal): Approve (48.5%) cf. Disapprove (26%); Can’t say (25.5%). Net approval rating of +22.5%.

Job Approval – ‘Handling of Job as Opposition Leader’: Opposition Leader Luke Foley (ALP): Approve (28%) cf. Disapprove (28%); Can’t say (44%). Net approval rating of 0%.

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10.4% (unchanged since November–December 2014) and under-employment is 9.1% (down 1.6%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 19.5% (down 1.6%). (Interviewed in December 2014 & January 2015).

New South Wales State Election is scheduled for next month on March 28, 2015.

NSW electors were asked: “What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT problem facing NSW today?”

The key results are: (Full table below in release)

Transport Infrastructure – Road & Rail

15%

Politics, Leadership, Lack of vision, Politicians

10%

Health services & Hospitals

9%

General Infrastructure – Water, Electricity, Internet etc.

8%

Unemployment, Job security

7%

Privatisation, Foreign ownership, Selling of assets

7%

Educational issues

7%

NSW electors were then asked to rank six issues in New South Wales: “Which of the following issues do you believe is the most important facing New South Wales today?”

Improving Health Services & Hospitals

33%

Open & Honest Government

19%

Improving Education

18%

Managing the Economy

16%

Reducing Crime and Maintaining Law & Order

7%

Corruption

6%

Can’t say

1%


NSW electors were then asked further about the six issues: “Do you believe (Insert issue) is an important issue facing New South Wales today?” 

Issue

Yes

No

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

Improving Health Services & Hospitals

95

4

1

Open & Honest Government

93

6

1

Improving Education

90

8

2

Managing the Economy

89

10

1

Reducing Crime and Maintaining Law & Order

79

19

2

Corruption

79

17

4

NSW electors were then asked which party, or parties, would be best for managing each issue.

Issue

L-NP

ALP

Other/ Can’t say

 

%

%

%

Managing the Economy

50

26

24

Reducing Crime and Maintaining Law & Order

50

25

25

Corruption

36

18

46

Open & Honest Government

34

19

47

Improving Health Services & Hospitals

30

45

25

Improving Education

29

45

26

 

Most Important Problem Facing
NSW, Australia and The World

NSW
(February 2015)

Australia
(January 2015)

The World
(January 2015)

NSW
%

City
%

Country
%

Aus.
%

NSW
%

Aus.
%

NSW
%

The Economy/ Economic problems/ Interest rates

3

2

3

9

9

5

3

Housing affordability

2

2

1

1

2

-

-

Cost of living issues/ Rising prices/ Inflation

2

1

2

2

3

1

1

General Taxation – Mining Tax, Resource Tax etc.

1

1

-

1

1

*

-

Financial problems/ Money issues

*

1

-

1

-

*

1

(SUB TOTAL) TOTAL Financial Issues/ Cost of Living

7

7

6

14

14

6

5

Transport/ Transport infrastructure/ Road & rail

15

17

12

*

-

-

-

General Infrastructure/ Energy, Water, Internet etc.

9

12

5

*

-

-

-

Unemployment, Job security

8

5

11

13

11

3

2

Foreign ownership & investment/ Selling our assets

7

7

7

1

2

*

-

Over reliance on Mining Industry/ Impact of Mining

2

1

4

2

2

-

-

Federal Budget

1

1

2

2

2

-

-

Homelessness/ Lack of housing

1

1

-

1

1

*

-

Poverty, & Gap between rich and poor

*

-

1

2

2

8

7

Globalisation/Fairer world trade

-

-

-

1

-

*

1

Over-population

-

-

-

1

1

2

2

Farming/ Cut food imports and support our farmers

-

-

-

*

1

-

-

TOTAL Economic/ Financial issues (INCLUDING Carbon Tax)

49

51

47

38

35

20

16

Educational issues

7

9

5

4

3

1

1

Crime/ Law & Order

1

2

1

1

1

1

2

Corruption

1

1

2

-

-

*

-

Social apathy/Family breakdowns/ Selfishness/Moral decline

1

*

2

4

3

4

5

Drugs and drug abuse

1

*

2

1

1

1

*

Youth issues (Homelessness/ Apathy etc.)

*

1

-

1

1

-

-

Social Welfare, Welfare Dependency

*

*

1

2

4

*

-

Greed/ Materialism

*

*

-

*

1

1

3

Anger/Violence/Aggression

-

-

-

1

-

*

-

TOTAL Social Issues

13

13

13

13

13

8

10

Terrorism

1

1

1

7

8

33

35

Wars and conflicts

*

1

-

*

1

5

6

Security, Safety

-

-

-

2

2

3

1

Relations with other countries, Indonesia, USA etc.

-

-

-

*

-

-

-

World Peace

-

-

-

-

-

2

*

TOTAL Terrorism/Wars/Security/Safety

2

2

1

11

10

42

42

Politics/ Leadership

7

4

11

5

3

3

4

Leadership from Politicians/ Courage to lead/ Lack of vision

5

4

6

4

5

*

-

Tony Abbott

-

-

-

3

2

*

-

TOTAL Government / Politics/ Leadership

12

9

17

11

10

3

4

Other Environmental issues

3

3

3

2

3

2

3

Climate Change/ Global warming

1

1

1

6

7

10

11

Natural disasters – Floods, Earthquakes, Bushfires

1

1

1

*

-

*

1

Drought

-

-

-

1

-

-

-

Pollution/ Rubbish

-

-

-

*

1

1

1

Water conservation

-

-

-

*

-

*

1

Famine/ Food shortages

-

-

-

-

-

1

1

TOTAL Environmental Issues

5

5

5

9

11

14

17

Immigration/ Immigration policy

1

1

-

2

1

1

1

Racism/Racial tensions

-

-

-

2

2

*

1

Refugees and Asylum seeker problems

-

-

-

2

1

*

-

Multiculturalism/ Integration/ Assimilation

-

-

-

1

3

*

-

Religion/ Religious fundamentalism

-

-

-

1

1

5

4

Intolerance/Discrimination

-

-

-

1

-

*

*

Aboriginal Issues/ Health/ Rights

-

-

-

*

1

-

-

TOTAL Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights

1

1

-

8

9

7

6

Other health issues

8

7

8

3

4

2

2

Hospitals

2

3

3

*

-

-

-

TOTAL Health Issues

10

10

10

3

4

2

2

Sustainable management of natural resources

*

-

1

1

-

*

-

Energy crisis

-

-

-

-

1

*

-

TOTAL Energy Crisis/ Depletion of Fossil Fuels/Petrol Price

*

-

1

1

1

1

-

Other

1

1

1

*

1

-

1

Can’t say

7

8

5

7

6

3

2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Less than 1%


After being asked who they preferred as Premier – Mr. Mike Baird or Mr. Luke Foley, electors were then asked to explain why they preferred Mr. Baird, Mr. Foley or preferred neither leader.

Electors who preferred Mr. Baird as Premier mentioned his experience, including serving as NSW Treasurer under the previous Premier, his likeability and the fact he’s able to get the message across to the electorate and also that he has good plans for the future of New South Wales and a clear path to achieve it. Many electors also mentioned the relative inexperience of Opposition Leader Luke Foley and the fact no one really knows that much about him.

“Got more integrity.”

“I think he’s proven that he’s quite honest.”

“He has the runs on the board. He did a good job as Treasurer and at this point I think he’ll do a better job.”

“I believe in what he’s trying to achieve.”

“He seems to have a proven track record. He inspires confidence.”

“He’s been capable. He has the experience.”

“He’s doing a darn good job, out and about, and he’s a nice guy.”

“From what I’ve seen he seems to be quite genuine.”

“Baird has been quite consistent with his management style.”

“Baird actually has runs on the board, he’s got policies that look forward.”

“I think the Liberal Party seems to manage money better. They just don’t borrow money willy nilly.”

“Baird’s experience and thus far Foley has been quite unimpressive.”

“I’ve just never heard of Luke Foley. He has no experience. New South Wales needs jobs and employment, not more jobs for trade union members.”

“Because Mr. Baird has got a good framework of what New South Wales needs to do in the future and doing so and providing that infrastructure will be very beneficial for all of Australia.”

“Things aren’t going too badly in New South Wales and I’m not aware of the Opposition Leader at all.”

“Because every time Labor get in they put everybody into debt. The Labor Party can’t understand simple maths.”

“I just see that what he’s trying to do will be beneficial for us in the future.”

“Mainly because he does get things done and he gets things across. I’m disappointed with the mines though.”

“I’m really not aware of Foley’s policies at all.”

“I don’t know enough about Mr. Foley at this stage and I really don’t know what he stands for.”


Electors who preferred Mr. Foley as Premier often mentioned they were long-time Labor supporters, rather than anything to do with Foley himself. There was also criticism of Mr. Baird and how he got the job along with some praise for Foley as ‘more balanced and mature’ and more of a moderate supporting issues like marriage equality.

“Because I’m a Labor voter.”

“I don’t like Baird, they want to sell everything off.”

“I don’t know, but Mr. Baird isn’t doing a very good job so I’ll choose the other guy.”

“I’ve heard a lot of negative stuff about Mr. Baird.”

“Because I’m a Labor supporter and I don’t agree with anything the Liberal Party has done.”

“I have to go with gut feeling.”

“I’m more of a Labor person.”

“Because I vote for Labor.”

“Because I support Labor and what it stands for.”

“I don’t like the way Liberals do things.”

“I don’t know. Foley is Labor isn’t he? I try to vote Labor, they are more the working man than the Liberals.”

“He is more balanced and mature when he speaks.”

“Because the other bloke didn’t earn it, he was given the job.”

“Foley is slightly more moderate, I know that it’s not a state issue, but on a personal level, he supports things like marriage equality which I also support.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of Premier Mike Baird and Opposition Leader Luke Foley. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?

This special telephone Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premier and Important issues in New South Wales was conducted earlier this week on February 20-22, 2015 with a cross-section of 418 New South Wales electors.

As all ‘poll-watchers’ know News Corp’s ‘dislike’ of Clive Palmer means Newspoll doesn’t include the Palmer United Party (PUP) as an alternative in their Federal or State polls which leads to misleading results.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093