Data collected last weekend (Saturday and Sunday), based on 1,083 face-to-face interviews.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2% to 110.3 in the week ending March 8, to the weakest level in three weeks. Newsflow around the long-term Federal government budget outlook (spurred by the release of the Intergenerational Report) likely drove the decline last week.
The detail seems to bear this out. Confidence in the economic outlook over the next year (-1.7%) and five years (-5.9%) fell. Both subindices remain at historically subdued levels, reflecting concerns about government finances and political instability, as well as weak job security and wages growth.
The other major driver was a 2% decline in ‘household finances over the next year’, the sub-index most correlated with auction clearance rates. This is surprising in light of buoyant housing market activity in recent weeks.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence clearly remains fragile and consumers continue to show an asymmetric response to newsflow. Over the last year or so, there have been sizable declines in consumer confidence in relation to any negative news around the Federal budget and economy, while potentially positive catalysts, such as the interest rate cut, lower petrol prices and higher asset prices have only really worked to offset the negatives. We suspect that elevated levels of uncertainty about the economic outlook are causing consumers to be unusually sensitive to negative newsflow and this is weighing on confidence.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.